The Telegraph this week reported that almost one in three UK churches could close by the end of the decade, citing a survey by the National Churches Trust. But data can be cut in different ways, and the survey actually found that 91% of churches expect to still be open in five years. Only 5% of congregations thought they would probably or definitely not still be open over that period.

That still implies over a thousand churches are facing imminent closure, and a cluster of thorny issues have recently made church maintenance more difficult. The high rates of inflation after the pandemic impacted construction costs, as have building regulations and the quest for Net Zero. VAT relief on repairs to places of worship that are listed buildings may end next April, and the Government has already introduced a cap of £25,000 per project. This has had devastating financial consequences for some major restoration projects which had already started.

Some 12,500 of the Church of England’s 16,000 churches are listed, and this includes a whopping 45% of all Grade I listed buildings in England. The much-maligned institution is in fact closing churches at a slower pace in the 21st century than in the Sixties and Seventies, when hundreds of less architecturally significant churches faced the wrecking ball as Victorian slums were cleared.

Other denominations tell a more pessimistic story. The Church of Scotland is in the process of a mass sell-off, perhaps amounting to 40% of its buildings including medieval gems. In Wales, where small non-conformist denominations were particularly significant, 25% of historic chapels and churches have closed in the last decade, and English non-conformists have also closed huge numbers of churches this century. Paralleling the decline of Mainline Protestantism in North America, British non-conformist churches have been shrinking for over a century. In the late 20th and early 21st centuries, it was Pentecostal churches, not known for their interest in beautiful buildings, which were the only ones to buck the trend of rapid secularization in Britain. The Catholic Church has also experienced a decline in attendance in recent decades. In England, 2023 Sunday Mass attendance was about a quarter of what it was in 1980.

Even with the Church of England, there are fears that an aging band of volunteers will not be replaced when they pass on. Covid devastated the willingness to volunteer in both secular organizations and churches. For small churches, a sudden large repair bill — for a collapsed wall, leaking roof, or worst of all, stolen lead — can be the final nail in the coffin, especially if it is in a small village or deprived area.

However, there may be hope. Survey evidence from earlier this year points to a sudden post-pandemic uptick in young adults turning to Christianity, dubbed a “Quiet Revival”. Some young people, it seems, are seeking alternatives to a rationalist secular liberalism that has given them only economic insecurity at home and war abroad.

In contrast to the pattern before 2020, many of the young adults returning to faith seem to be seeking traditional forms of religion, often in historic buildings. There is also evidence from France and Belgium of a big uptick in young adults from entirely secular backgrounds being baptized.

Statistics, however, haven’t yet registered this revival in the pews. But if this shift does crystallize into something more concrete, it would have radical and unpredictable implications for the politics and culture of a hitherto decidedly post-Christian country. It would do far more than save old churches, as crucial as that would be.