Ever since George Orwell wrote “Ignorance is Strength”, sections of the Left have treated every expression of Right-wing opinion among the British public as proof of ignorance.

That attitude has been on full display in the latest debate over immigration. New polling by YouGov shows that the most popular policy is a sharp reduction in migration, while still allowing some migrants to enter the country. Nearly half of voters support tougher measures: 26% strongly favor halting all new immigration and requiring recent arrivals to leave, with another 19% somewhat in favor.

This is neither new nor shocking. But the statistic the Left has seized on is that nearly half of respondents believe there are more immigrants living in the UK illegally than legally. Only 19% correctly said there is “much more” legal than illegal immigration, despite that almost certainly being true, even under the highest estimates of unauthorized migration.

The Guardian claims this “shows a clear link between having hardline anti-immigrant views and being ignorant about the level of illegal immigration into the UK”. On LBC, as if reading from the same script, James O’Brien proclaimed that “we are a gaslit nation,” fed a steady diet of misinformation by “the sons and daughters of Brexit”.

As is so often the case, reality is more complicated. The public’s error lies less in overestimating illegal migration than in underestimating the sheer scale of legal immigration.

Last year, the think tank Onward set out to take a deeper look at public attitudes towards immigration. One of the key questions it explored was why polling only seemed to show whether support for immigration was rising or falling, and rarely clarified the baseline people had in mind. What level of immigration were voters assuming?

The median estimate was 70,000 — a figure almost 10 times lower than the actual net migration number for 2023 (672,000), and 17 times lower than the gross figure of 1.2 million.

Despite this massive underestimate, voters in nearly nine out of 10 constituencies want immigration reduced and border controls tightened. Of the remaining 75 seats where people favor higher immigration and looser controls, 52 are in London. Across the board, polling on immigration continues to show a clear majority of the electorate in favor of lower numbers — as confirmed once again by the latest YouGov data.

This should come as a warning to Labour. Under Keir Starmer, the party has spent much political and financial capital on tackling the Channel crossings, but they are higher so far this year than ever before. Labour’s barrage of new announcements — including the return deal with France, which too effect yesterday — is still struggling to make up for the loss of the deterrent effect of the Rwanda scheme, which Starmer cancelled in one of his first moves in office.

Left-leaning elites are often acutely aware of the public’s failure to embrace progressive ideals in the way they expect. Yet if the British public were fully aware of the scale of immigration over the past 25 years (much of it introduced without their consent), the Left might feel even more betrayed than it already does. As migration numbers continue to rise, public frustration is likely to grow, along with support for parties such as Reform UK. In that sense, the Left may be fortunate that most voters do not fully grasp the scale of change.

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Tom Jones writes at The Potemkin Village Idiot.

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