Spain has long lagged behind its neighbors when it comes to Europe’s Right-wing populist shift, but that may be about to change. New polling has Right-wing party Vox rising to 18.9% of the vote — a gain of 5.7 percentage points since last month. It is no coincidence that, earlier this month, Vox vowed to deport eight million foreigners from Spain should it win the next election. This tougher stance echoes the embrace of “remigration” policies by parties such as Germany’s AfD, marking a sharp shift in Spain’s debate over immigration.

Today, immigration ranks as Spanish citizens’ second-biggest concern, just behind housing and ahead of the economy. Like much of Europe, Spain has experienced a post-pandemic immigration surge, its own version of the “Boriswave”, with around 3.5 million arrivals since 2021. This has pushed the foreign-born share of the population to 18%, well above the EU average. To cement this trend, the ruling coalition last year proposed to fast-track citizenship for around half a million undocumented migrants who arrived before November 2021.

While this demographic growth has helped fill gaps in Spain’s labor market and sustain headline GDP growth, it has also intensified the perception that social services are overstretched. Long wait times in the public healthcare system, constant delays in the rail network, and incidents of street crime involving immigrants have fueled unease in many cities. In some places, locals have even taken matters into their own hands, confronting suspected criminals of migrant origin.

The Socialist-led government has leant heavily on this immigration-driven growth model, relying on population increases and low-productivity sectors such as tourism. Since 2022, immigrants have filled about 40% of all new jobs, but this has done little to raise either GDP per capita or productivity, which continue to trail EU averages. This makes Spain’s expansion quantity-driven rather than quality-driven, with more people working precarious low-wage jobs.

This combination of rapid foreign population growth and economic stagnation is eroding old taboos around immigration, and planting the seeds for a policy change. Vox, clearly, is seeking to reap the benefits.

After Rocío de Meer, the party’s spokesperson for Demographic Emergency, declared this month that Spain’s eight million foreign-born residents should “go back to their countries”. The party’s president Santiago Abascal watered down the figure, perhaps mindful that Vox draws strong support from nationalized Latin American voters. Still, the message resonates with many who feel rising immigration is unsustainable.

Yet Vox’s rise isn’t just down to a backlash against migrants. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s corruption scandals and the perceived weakness of the center-right People’s Party (PP) also play a role. The fact that Vox will likely be needed as part of a Right-wing governing coalition, or through external support, also helps normalize the party in the eyes of the electorate.

It is worth noting, however, that the rise of pro-remigration politics goes beyond Vox. The party now faces competition on its Right from Se Acabó la Fiesta, led by the online influencer Alvise Pérez, which won three seats at last year’s European Parliament elections. In Catalonia, a territory long dominated by the Left and a top destination for migrants, polls show the rapid rise of Aliança Catalana — an anti-immigration nationalist party with ties to the AfD which openly champions remigration. Its growth could upend local politics and weaken Sánchez’s coalition, which relies on regional parties to govern.

The rise of various pro-remigration competitors demonstrates that Vox is far from alone in its platform, and this trend will surely push the party to further harden its stance. It is a sign that the new wave of Right-wing populism driven by mass migration is firmly taking root in all corners of Europe.

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Miquel Vila is a political consultant specialising in international affairs. He is also the executive director of the Catalonia Global Institute.

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