Over two-thirds of Palestinians are opposed to the disarmament of Hamas in the Gaza Strip, according to new polling.

The survey of 1,200 Palestinians was conducted by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR), an independent polling organisation funded by the EU and the Ford Foundation. Of those asked, 69% said that the terrorist organisation should not disarm, even “if this is a condition for the war to not return to the Gaza Strip”. In the West Bank specifically this figure rose to 78%, dropping to 55% in the Gaza Strip.

Additionally, the survey found that an all-time low of 39% of those questioned think that Hamas will win the war against Israel, down from 70% in December 2023 when polling began. These results come in the wake of a ceasefire that has formally been in effect since 10 October, which was the first phase of a longer-term peace deal.

The deal, when presented using “favourable Arab and Islamic framing” — the plan ends the war in Gaza, releases hostages and Palestinian prisoners, abandons the forced transfer of Gazans, and allows the entry of humanitarian aid, among other stipulations — was supported by 47% of those polled, while 49% opposed it. This appears to contradict the finding that 69% are opposed to disarmament as the peace deal does require that Hamas disarm.

The PCPSR survey also found that 60% of those asked did not think a ceasefire would end the war, and that there would be no Palestinian state within the next five years. Almost half of those asked believed that, even with no Palestinian state, there would be a normalisation of ties between other Arab nations and Israel. Further polling published today suggested that less than half of Israelis believe Hamas will give up control of the Gaza Strip, casting further doubt on whether the group would disarm.

In the wake of the ceasefire agreement, a senior Hamas official warned that disarmament was “out of the question”. Shortly after this, a politburo member from the group, Mohammed Nazzal, told Reuters that he could not commit to the group disarming, stating: “I can’t answer with a yes or no. Frankly, it depends on the nature of the project. […] To whom will the weapons be handed over?”

Nonetheless, Trump has maintained that Hamas will be forced to disarm and last week warned that if the group did not comply, it would face a “FAST, FURIOUS AND BRUTAL” end. Yesterday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that a “joint effort” between the US and Israel would be required to enforce disarmament.