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Nick Clegg: EU is trapped in terminal decline

'We are in the midst of a wholesale redrawing of the shape of the west – as profound a shift as the fall of the USSR,' the former deputy PM wrote today. Credit: Getty

‘We are in the midst of a wholesale redrawing of the shape of the west – as profound a shift as the fall of the USSR,’ the former deputy PM wrote today. Credit: Getty

27 April 2025 - 1:10pm

The European Union is contributing to its own “terminal decline” due to naivety and fragmentation, according to Nick Clegg. Failing “a once-in-a-generation reinvention of the EU itself”, the former UK deputy prime minister claimed the union would become as hollowed out and impotent as the United Nations — “lofty bodies with almost no political sovereignty”.

Writing in the Observer today, Clegg argued that a “failure of collective leadership” combined with the threats from “an increasingly predatory constellation of the US, China and Russia” could spell the end of the EU. “The dream of a Europe free, strong and whole,” he wrote, “will have sputtered to an end at the hands of the nationalism, protectionism and big power conflict which it was founded to overcome.”

Clegg’s intervention comes as Donald Trump’s presidency creates fresh challenges for Europe. The continent has struggled to grapple with US-imposed tariffs, while Trump has said that Europe must pay its way on defence, rather than relying on an American security umbrella. In his Observer article, Clegg described these shifts as a “shock — greater geopolitically than 1989 or even 2008”.

The former head of global affairs at Meta also took aim at Brussels’s slow decision-making, internal one-upmanship and lack of innovation. Rather than wasting time on trivial issues and “micromanaging”, he argued, the EU should instead “focus only on the existential priorities: defence, energy, and innovation”.

On tech, Clegg said the EU’s “single digital market still does not exist in practice”, while development “remains balkanised by countless national and regional regulations, and data protection and licensing requirements”. To achieve “the much-needed transition to cleaner energy,” he wrote that Europe should “integrate its own electricity system — including building long-delayed connections between France and Spain and in the North Sea”. Most crucially, regarding defence he claimed: “the EU needs to be rewired to wield hard, not just soft, power.”

Clegg has long been a champion of the EU. He previously worked for the European Commission and was a member of the European Parliament from 1999-2004 in what he described as the “heyday of globalisation and European integration”. The former Liberal Democrats leader was a prominent opponent of Brexit, publishing his book How To Stop Brexit (And Make Britain Great Again) a year after the 2016 vote. In December last year — before he stood down from his role at Meta — he said that the UK must rejoin the EU, arguing that “you can’t defy geography.” In today’s piece, Clegg wrote that “the historical folly of Brexit has now delivered the worst of both worlds to the UK: out of the heart of Europe, while plaintively pleading for special favours in Washington.”

Last summer, he warned that the new European Parliament faced an “existential” moment. That has only been confirmed with the “wholesale redrawing of the shape of the west” since Trump’s election, which Clegg today labelled “as profound a shift as the fall of the USSR”. The EU is “not fit for purpose”, he wrote. “The question now is not whether Europe wants to change. It is whether it will change enough, and fast enough.”


Max Mitchell is UnHerd’s Assistant Editor, Newsroom.

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China is threatening America in the AI race

Reports sugget Zhipu AI  has released a new model that can rival leading US systems. Credit: Getty

Reports sugget Zhipu AI has released a new model that can rival leading US systems. Credit: Getty

1 July 2026 - 10:18am

China is trying to catch up with America on artificial intelligence. The Wall Street Journal has reported that Zhipu AI — one of China’s six “AI tiger” LLMs — has released a new model that can rival leading US systems, including Anthropic’s Mythos, in cybersecurity tasks such as pinpointing security bugs. While this marks a milestone in China’s drive to catch up with Western AI capabilities, strong performance on a single benchmark does not mean it has taken the lead. Chinese models still lag behind their Western counterparts in broader capabilities, such as autonomous operation. Skepticism is therefore warranted before resorting to hysterical conclusions, but complacency about the geopolitical implications of China’s AI advances would be an even greater mistake.

On the infrastructure side, Chinese AI is still constrained by access to advanced chips, with American labs way ahead in computing capacity as well as investment. Analysis from earlier this year suggests that Chinese models are likely to be at least a few months behind those in the US. But they are still continuing to make progress, or that the geopolitical importance of AI will be decided only by whose LLM has ventured deeper into the technological frontier. The practical applications of AI, countries’ to capture foreign markets, and the application of AI into the real economy will matter just as much.

Here, China may hold an advantage. As with its dominance across many critical supply chains, Beijing may not need to produce the most advanced AI systems — only those that are affordable and widely deployable. In doing so, it could consolidate global influence by supplying functional, low-cost AI at scale.

Beijing seems to be pursuing exactly that path, developing an AI “open-source” strategy that offers affordable, widely available AI models for companies and individuals to use and modify as they wish. The production of the DeepSeek AI model, which matched the performance of Silicon Valley tools such as ChatGPT at a fraction of the cost for users, created goodwill among Chinese models with developers.

The four most popular models on OpenRouter, an AI hardware platform for developers, are now all Chinese. The goal for China is not only to win the frontier-model race, but to make its systems the default layer of AI adoption across industries and global markets. For most economies, the choice is increasingly between an affordable tool they can deploy now and a more robust one that may be out of reach.

And while the countries adopting Chinese models may be exposed to political pressure and cyber threats from Beijing, safer and more capable alternatives matter little if they are unaffordable. American AI companies are already under pressure to monetize products whose operating costs are rising. If Chinese open-source models become the cheap default for startups, universities, governments and businesses across the developing world, then America’s AI lead will be eroded from below.

Perhaps more concerning for America in the long run is how AI can give Chinese manufacturing even more strength, through the ongoing integration of AI as a general-purpose technology. China’s new Five-Year Plan mentioned AI more than 50 times and includes an “AI+” action plan aimed at spreading AI across the economy.

Beijing has been pioneering automation of its critical infrastructure for years, with promising recent results in increasing warplane production capacity. In that regard, China’s open-model strategy and manufacturing dominance will reinforce each other. Cheap, adaptable models accelerate deployment across the real economy while those deployments generate real-world data and use cases that can feed back into further model improvement.

The United States should not dismiss the importance of its lead in the AI race. That lead worries Beijing, not least because a more automated Chinese economy would also become more vulnerable to AI-generated cyber threats. But nor should Washington assume that China cannot catch up with American capabilities over time.

This AI competition represents part of a broader struggle over tech supply chains and geopolitical influence. Decisions over whether to adopt US or Chinese models could produce a more fragmented global reality, with different regions relying on different cloud providers, chips and security structures. The result will likely be a global economy which is divided into competing spheres, rather than one which produces a single winner.


Miquel Vila is a political and geopolitical risk consultant focusing on industrial strategy, critical infrastructure and global supply chains.

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