Fresh from a successful trip to the United States, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has suffered a blow with the departure of the ultra-Orthodox parties Degel HaTorah and Agudat Yisrael from his coalition government.

These groups are both members of the United Torah Judaism bloc in the Israeli Knesset. Their chairman, Yitzhak Goldknopf, had already withdrawn a few weeks ago, but he did not take the rest of the bloc with him. These latest departures will cost the coalition another seven seats in the Knesset, reducing its numbers to 61 out of 120 legislators, and its notional majority to just one seat.

The withdrawal comes after the publication of the draft bill ending the exemption of the ultra-Orthodox from conscription into the Israeli Defense Forces, which is compulsory for all other Jewish Israelis.

This exemption has existed since the creation of the state of Israel in 1948, following an agreement between the Haredi rabbis and inaugural Israeli prime minister David Ben-Gurion. For the Haredim, men should devote their lives to studying the Torah, rather than paid employment or military service. Their religious leaders worry that serving alongside secular Israelis will cause their sons and grandchildren to lose their faith, especially due to the temptations of serving with Israeli women.

Some extreme sects even see the very existence of the state of Israel, absent the coming of the Messiah, as a blasphemy — which is why some ultra-Orthodox in the diaspora can be found on Palestinian solidarity marches and lunching with former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.

This exemption has become increasingly contentious in recent years, especially given the high birth rates among the ultra-Orthodox, meaning that they make up an increasingly large share of the Israeli population, without contributing — financially or physically — to the defense of the country.

The resentment against the exemption unites Israelis across the political spectrum, since the Religious Zionists and settlers — as represented in the government by Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich — do serve in the military, and have suffered a disproportionately high casualty rate in the recent wars.

It has become even more potent since the 7 October attacks, which has resulted in a draft bill to finally end the blanket exemption. That the bill has broad support across Israeli society means that this latest setback is unlikely to force Netanyahu from office. Even if the 11 members of the Shas party, which represents the Mizrahi Haredim, follow suit and bring the government’s numbers down to just 50 seats, it is still expected that Netanyahu would be able to continue in office as head of the minority government.

This is because even if they refuse to serve under him, the Haredim know deep down that they would not receive a better deal under anyone else, and so are unlikely to vote against him in a confidence motion. In opposition, with Bibi still in power, they would be able to vote against attempts to draft their youth into the IDF, without bringing about an election that would surely produce a Knesset even less sympathetic to their exemption from conscription. In fact, they may have greater leverage in opposition, able to use the threat of a vote of no confidence to try and bring about greater concessions on conscription than they have managed as part of the governing coalition.

That is why, although he has suffered yet another serious setback, it is unlikely to be enough to force Netanyahu from office. He has overcome many obstacles over the past two years and nothing has brought him down yet. Since the start of the war, many have predicted his imminent demise and yet he is still in place. His record as the longest-serving Israeli PM looks set to continue for a while longer.

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David Swift is a historian and author. His next book, Scouse Republic, is available to pre-order now.

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