8 September 2025 - 7:00pm
The rapid modernisation of China’s armed forces has never been more evident than its parade last week to commemorate 80 years since the end of the Second World War. Similar events in the past have displayed an arsenal formed in much larger part by knock-offs of more advanced Western armaments. But as Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong Un and 18 other foreign leaders looked on, Xi Jinping heralded a bold new era for his country’s defence.
China has increased its military spending by a factor of 13 over the past 30 years, according to Stockholm International Peace Research Institute data, while simultaneously reducing the personnel in its ground forces by 40% over the past 10. As a result, it is now able to field weaponry far more diverse and innovative than ever before. Importantly, much of this is produced using reliable, domestic supply chains where Nato states have over the past decade found themselves vulnerable.
Take as an example China’s progress in cutting-edge hypersonic missile technology, boasted at the parade with the YJ-17, YJ-19, and YJ-20 anti-ship missiles. Travelling at least five times faster than the speed of sound (about 3,800 miles per hour), these missiles present a serious threat to America’s smaller — albeit better equipped — navy. They’re able to dodge and, in salvos, likely overwhelm advanced defence systems. Neither Britain nor any other European nation has developed a hypersonic missile yet, and report leaked in 2023 revealed that the US Department of Defense still lags behind China in this domain.
Then there were the drones, and it’s no surprise that China has invested heavily in this field following developments in Ukraine. In its parade, Beijing displayed a diverse range of different ground, sea, and aerial drones that included a 20 metre-long submersible which may function like an unmanned torpedo capable of performing direct strikes. If it were to come to a naval battle, Ukraine has proven this kind of technology to be capable of serious strategic influence, sending Russia’s Black Sea fleet scurrying for safe harbour by largely using unmanned seaborne drones. And that was without any real navy to speak of, while China possesses the world’s largest by sheer number of ships.
Nato states are expanding their capabilities in this realm, too. For example, German manufacturer Helsing cut a deal with Britain this summer to open a new factory in Plymouth for the production of submersible surveillance drones, and Nato has been performing large-scale joint exercises to prepare for the drone threat. But whether it will be enough to counter China without first being tested in open combat remains in question. Some analysts fear that China may already be ahead. The message is clear: Nato may not be able to rely on its past technological advantage for much longer.
It is, however, important to consider that China hasn’t been to war for almost half a century. Large armies equipped with cutting-edge technology look spectacular at parades, and serve as excellent sales pitches to allied states, but in practice they’re impotent without proper organisation. An incident where a Chinese warship accidentally rammed its own coast guard vessel last month, as well as serious corruption within the People’s Liberation Army, suggest that this could prove a problem for Beijing.
One might also argue, though, that Nato’s recent battlefield experience against insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan would carry little value in a conventional war against a superpower like China. When I was reporting in Ukraine, veterans constantly impressed on me that experienced foreign fighters from Europe and the US often struggled with the reality of frontline combat in the trenches. Recent developments in technology, such as China’s drones and hypersonic missiles, also introduce uncertainty about how far the nature of warfare has changed, which remains a constant topic of debate in military circles.
Russia has proven in Ukraine that the combination of production capacity and sheer will are enough to wage a successful war of attrition in the 21st century. China is spending five times as much on defence as Japan and almost seven times as much as South Korea. Although its defence budget is still only about a third the size of America’s, this parade shows that it’s prepared and capable of rapidly closing that gap. Any hope that Nato might have pinned on a technological advantage could disappear if China continues on this trajectory.
Charlie Metcalfe is a freelance journalist specialising in foreign affairs with experience reporting from the Middle East and Europe, including Ukraine.
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