You could be forgiven for thinking that marriage is a thing of the past in modern America. Rising divorce rates, plummeting fertility rates, and the slow disintegration of the nuclear family all point in that direction. Over the weekend, the Wall Street Journal even declared that marriage is becoming the preserve of the wealthy, with poorer and working-class Americans increasingly turning away from it. But is the picture really that bleak?

It’s true that marriage rates are down. Analysis from the Institute for Family Studies (IFS) indicates that the share of men and women aged 22-45 who are married has fallen over the past 15 years. Notably, working-class Americans have seen the steepest decline. Between 2008 and 2023, the share of college-educated adults aged 22-45 who were married fell six percentage points, from 59% to 53%. Over the same period, the share of adults in the same age group without a bachelor’s degree who were married fell by 8 percentage points, from 48% to 40%. This drop is especially troubling given that working-class Americans are already less likely to put a ring on it.

Marriage decline across education levels

Marriage rates have fallen for everyone, but the decline is particularly pronounced among those without a college degree.

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These trends underline the economic dimension to marriage’s retreat in America. But class isn’t the whole story. Culture also matters, a fact that academics and journalists often gloss over in chronicling the state of our unions. Even controlling for credentials and paychecks, groups that place a premium on marriage and family are naturally more likely to get married and have children. Indeed, much of the marriage downturn in recent years is explained by a retreat from family-first institutions, like religion, that once played a bigger role in shaping and guiding American life.

To show this, we used the General Social Survey to estimate the share of adults aged 22-45 who are married, broken down by religiosity. We found that those who frequently attended religious services were much more likely to be married. And notably, in recent years, marriage rates among both religious and non-religious adults have been comparable to what they were 15 years ago.

This is despite the broader cultural decline in marriage overall. The data suggests that much of the retreat from marriage stems not from falling rates within each group, but from adults shifting from the religious category to the secular one.

The collapse of American religiosity, then, shares a lot of the blame for declining marriage rates. But recent data shows that, despite what secular Whigs predicted, religion may not be doomed in America and may even be poised for a revival. A recent study from Pew found that generational declines in religious affiliation have largely stalled. Political scientist Ryan Burge found that Gen-Z men were more likely to attend weekly religious services than Millennials and even some Gen-Xers. These findings square with our own analysis of the General Social Survey, which finds a 2024 increase in frequent religious attendance among adults aged 22-45 after the post-pandemic slump.

This religious upswing may be augmented by the outpouring of evangelical faith on the Right after the assassination of Charlie Kirk, the founder of Turning Point USA. In the wake of his death, and especially at his funeral on Sunday, figures from across the conservative spectrum — from Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Vice President JD Vance to his widow, Erika Kirk — articulated their devotion to Christianity.

They also stressed the close connections between faith and family. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told the vast throng that Kirk had given voice to young adults who believe that “the highest calling we are called to is to be in a successful marriage and raise productive children”. And many speakers at his funeral referenced this Charlie Kirk quote: “Get married. Have children. Build a legacy. Pass down your values. Pursue the Eternal. Seek true joy.”

There has been a war among America’s new Right over marriage. On one side, manosphere figures like Andrew Tate have sold the idea that marriage is a bad deal and that Christianity is for fools. On the other, as Caroline Downey of the National Review noted: “Kirk urged young men to reject the fleeting dopamine spike of raging against women and instead find fulfillment in real responsibility.”

Given the astonishing outpouring of support for Kirk’s pro-family messaging at his funeral from the highest echelons of the Right, and its wide viewing — his funeral was watched by more than 100 million people — it looks like Charlie Kirk’s commitment in word and deed to faith and family may have an outsized effect on what young conservatives in America choose to do in their private lives.