According to Guido Fawkes, a by-election is on the cards in the constituency of Gorton and Denton. The sitting MP, Andrew Gwynne — who was sacked as a minister by Keir Starmer and suspended from the Labour Party — is reportedly preparing to stand down.

The immediate relevance is that this is a Mancunian seat and would therefore present Andy Burnham, the Metro Mayor of Greater Manchester (and Labour big beast) with a ticket back to Westminster.

And it could prove to be the most consequential by-election of the 21st century. That’s because Gorton and Denton is on the frontlines of Labour’s struggle against Reform UK.

It should be stressed that we’re not talking about the infamous Red Wall here. This is where the Tories made major gains in 2019 only to lose almost all of them in 2024. Now the same seats are forecast to fall again — this time to Reform UK. Such is the fate of political borderlands.

By contrast, Gorton and Denton is part of Labour’s inner perimeter. In 2019, the Tories came nowhere near to winning in the areas that comprise the recently-formed constituency — in fact, Labour prevailed with a crushing two-thirds of the vote.

But last year, there was an ominous development. Against the national trend, Labour lost vote share locally — both to Reform UK and to the Greens. That slide continues. Based on recent polling trends, the Nowcast model projects a vote share of just 35% for Labour against 28.8% for Reform. Nigel Farage must be eyeing up Gorton as an encore to his party’s by-election victory in Runcorn and Helsby (another supposedly safe Labour seat).

There’s also the incipient danger posed by Jeremy Corbyn and friends. If they get their new party up and running in time, then Gorton, with its 30% Muslim population, could provide a promising electoral debut. At the very least, Corbyn can hope to drain votes from his old party.

Make no mistake: a loss here would be a shattering blow for Labour. For instance, if Gorton falls then that spells doom for Angela Rayner in Ashton-under-Lyne — a neighbouring constituency with a shakier majority. I don’t see her standing by while Starmer leads her party to destruction — and certainly not with her own seat on the line.

But for the Prime Minister there’s a second deadly scenario, which is that Andy Burnham holds on to Gorton by a clear margin.

Not only would Labour’s King-in-the-North be back in Parliament, he’d be returning as the hero who stopped Reform in its tracks. In such circumstances, the question wouldn’t be whether Labour MPs might prefer him as their leader, but why on Earth wouldn’t they?

Burnham is the bright star of the Labour Party. He’s charismatic, articulate and a reminder of happier days. Furthermore, his reappearance on the green benches would be a big challenge to the status quo. In short, Starmer had better hope the by-election doesn’t happen. If it does, he’s in a lose-lose situation.

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Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.

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