Emmanuel Macron has crossed the Channel for an official state visit to the United Kingdom, and he is not coming empty-handed. For the first time in 900 years, the Bayeux Tapestry will return to England. It is a memento of how intertwined the two countries’ histories have been — with occasional bloody chapters. Macron and Keir Starmer have forged a strong working relationship thanks to agreements on issues ranging from defense to migration, following several years during which the Entente was anything but cordial.

After Brexit, Macron played the EU bad cop in negotiations with the UK. Boris Johnson then tried to one-up the French leader on support for Ukraine, while the UK’s successful vaccination campaign made the EU’s own stuttering effort look hapless in comparison. Add to that a slow burn of tensions over illegal immigration between France and the UK with the persistent struggle of small boats and human trafficking, and the result was a disastrous bilateral relationship. It was hardly three years ago when Liz Truss could not say whether the French President was a friend or a foe.

All of this sounded like water under the bridge when listening to Macron’s speech to Parliament this afternoon. And while some on the Right might take offence at the French leader calling Brexit a “deeply regrettable decision”, his speech was largely conciliatory. Macron charmed his audience, receiving a roar of laughter when joking about how the French love monarchies — just not at home.

Besides the symbolic gift of the Bayeux Tapestry, Macron seemed to come with policy gifts, even floating the idea of a youth mobility scheme for students, researchers and artists. Despite the issues, immigration is another area of optimism, with both parties appearing keen to work in good faith. Only a few days ago, French police were filmed slashing a small boat about to board for the UK. Macron will meet Starmer tomorrow and more breakthroughs, notably on migration and on defense, are expected to round off a successful trip.

And yet, for all the rekindling of Franco-British relations, the reality is that both leaders are in an incredibly weak position. Both are in charge of middle powers whose share of global GDP has been consistently melting away, in no small part due to stagnant economies. Both are dealing with massive budgetary headaches, with impossibly difficult trade-offs. And while Starmer at least has a parliamentary majority, his ranks have grown increasingly restless. Macron might even have to deal with another round of anticipated elections in the months leading up to the budget. All of this effectively circumscribes their ability to be global leaders.

Perhaps the best illustration of this discrepancy came earlier this year, with the two men floating the idea of sending to Ukraine a “reassurance force” of European “boots on the ground and planes in the air” to provide a de facto security guarantee in the aftermath of a ceasefire. It would be a bold move — and one that remains largely theoretical, with few other European countries willing to follow the lead of Paris and London without clear approval from Washington. It is doubtful that the UK and France would even have the capacity to mount a credible force.

Macron stated to Parliament in his closing remarks today that France and the UK have a “common destiny”. As both countries grapple with major common struggles, he may be right in more ways than one.

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François Valentin is a political analyst and co-host of the Uncommon Decency podcast.

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