Back in November, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood pulled off a rare coup of political communications. She managed to sneak out the announcement of one of the most significant liberalizations of illegal immigration, and few people actually noticed that’s what she’d done. In a daring bait and switch, Mahmood released proposals saying that refugee status would only be awarded temporarily. New arrivals would be expected to go home once it was safe to do so.

Those rules have come into force this week, while Mahmood is set to make a speech today making the “progressive case” for immigration control. This announcement has been accompanied by briefings that illegal immigrants would have their valuables confiscated to cover their living expenses, as well as freezes on study visas from Afghanistan, Cameroon, Myanmar and Sudan. All this provided enough distraction for few to actually read the full Home Office document.

What the policy in fact set out was the opening up of new routes allowing those who arrive illegally to settle, in a similar manner to legal arrivals. While refugee status was to become temporary, this would only apply to those who stuck to a “core protection” track, passing over the opportunity to study and work. Presumably, this was intended to be only a small number of those seeking asylum from now on.

The new “work and study” track is expected to be included in Mahmood’s speech today. Once again, the less liberal elements of the proposals are likely to receive more attention than the actually very liberal substance. In the aftermath of Labour’s Gorton and Denton by-election defeat to the Greens, this is sure to cause uproar.

Home secretaries of any party are almost always portrayed as firm and authoritarian on illegal immigration by more liberal voices. Mahmood is no exception, and clearly enjoys some license from No. 10 to strike a robust pose and indicate that the Government takes the matter seriously. Facing down opposition to her reforms in parliament has allowed the Home Secretary to come across as one of the more substantial political figures in Keir Starmer’s Cabinet.

But this was before Labour’s loss in last week’s by-election. Now, many are claiming that the Government is alienating Left-wing and Muslim voters, whose support they can ill afford to lose. Deputy Leader Lucy Powell appears to be among a growing number of voices from the party’s “soft Left” who think Mahmood should tone down her rhetoric on immigration. This would restore Labour’s progressive credentials and encourage a new tactic. Since the party cannot outflank Reform on the subject, it would be appealing to those voters who are more likely to support Labour.

To some extent, Mahmood is in a strong position here regardless of what happens next. She is one of a very small number of prominent Labour politicians who are willing to say what is necessary to sound credible on border policy. As such, she is indispensable to whoever is in No. 10, be it Starmer or another Left-leaning figure regarded by the public as a soft touch on migration. On the other hand, she might decide to go for it herself. In which case, she can quite plausibly argue that her own reforms are among the most progressive on offer.

---

Chris Bayliss is an independent consultant who works on energy infrastructure in the Middle East.

baylissbaghdad

---