Nigel Farage has claimed that Conservative frontbencher Robert Jenrick will “almost certainly” end up the more Right-wing of the two on immigration by the time of the next general election. The comments were made in a New Statesman profile of the Shadow Justice Secretary and former Tory leadership candidate that was published today, with Farage adding: “I suspect he will probably go further — that’s just my instinct for someone who wants to make noise.”

The Reform UK leader is certainly right that Jenrick is making noise. As Kemi Badenoch falters, her former rival increasingly resembles the Tories’ leader-in-waiting, producing viral videos about fare dodgers and collabs with Tom Skinner (of Apprentice fame) with commendable zeal. But Farage’s suggestion that Jenrick will tack to his Right by 2029 is only half-true: really, the Tory politician has already outflanked him on immigration.

In today’s article, Farage acknowledged that he is more liberal on migration than most American voters, saying: “I haven’t fought the change itself, provided it comes with integration.” The remark aligns with his recent stance: earlier this year, he backed a cap on overall numbers while making exceptions for skilled workers in sectors like engineering. This built on Reform UK’s 2024 pledge to freeze non-essential immigration. At Prime Minister’s Questions this afternoon, Farage struck a harder note, demanding that Keir Starmer tell President Macron that Britain “will not accept undocumented males across the Channel.”

In a sign that Reform is softening its position, though, new chairman David Bull claimed last month that “immigration is the lifeblood of this country — it always has been.” Jenrick criticised this statement as “nonsense”, adding that “not all immigration is equal.” According to the Tory MP, “the unprecedented mass, unskilled migration we’ve experienced has been severely economically and culturally damaging” and “the root cause of so many of our problems”.

As Immigration Minister until December 2023, Jenrick had a front-row seat for the last Tory government’s handling of influxes into the UK, with net migration surging to a record 906,000 during the period. His apparent journey from Cameroon liberal to immigration hardliner has been noted by critics, with Farage questioning in today’s New Statesman piece whether Jenrick is really “this modern-day convert”, rather than an opportunist out for the Tory crown.

Still, the Shadow Justice Secretary’s points about “alien cultures” and English identity being under threat arguably go further than anything Farage has said on the subject since returning to frontline politics last year. The Reform leader has been keen to highlight the support his party receives from ethnic-minority voters, while Conservative commentators have argued that Jenrick is better equipped to tackle the problems that come with increased migration flows. Farage recognizes the coming Right-wing wave: he told the Sunday Times last month that his opponents should listen to his warnings, because “you wait till what comes after me.”

Reform has been leading in the polls for the last three months. Its growth since last year’s election has been immense, and it has been successful in capturing Left-of-center voters disillusioned with Starmer’s muddled position on immigration. Yet Farage is widely viewed on Britain’s radical Right as the most liberal man in his party. If Jenrick succeeds Badenoch — a scenario that could unfold before the next election — the Conservatives may be able to rebrand themselves as the party most capable of tackling the immigration crisis, despite the baggage of the Boris Johnson era. Farage hasn’t changed, but the Conservatives — and the country — have.

---

is UnHerd’s Deputy Editor, Newsroom.

RobLownie

---