October 20, 2025 - 1:30pm
For a moment it looked as though the war in Gaza was going to resume exactly where it left off. After Israel claimed that militants in Rafah fired an anti-tank round at IDF troops — killing Major Yaniv Kula and Sergeant Itay Yavetz — the Israeli Air Force launched a series of retaliatory strikes. More than 20 targets were hit, including a tunnel reportedly used by Hamas to hold hostages, as well as additional sites in Khan Yunis and the Nuseirat refugee camp. According to the Hamas-run Palestinian Health Ministry, 13 people were killed in the strikes, and 23 further bodies were recovered.
Hamas was quick to distance itself from the attack, saying it had not been in contact with the unit for months, and stating that it was committed to the ceasefire. Likewise, the Israelis — after initially threatening a military escalation and a cut-off of aid — soon backed down, with an IDF spokesman affirming: “We are in a ceasefire, although the soldiers are allowed to act to defend themselves.”
There are plenty in Israel who would be happy for hostilities to break out again, especially now that all the surviving hostages are back. Some are claiming that, with the attacks, Hamas has voided the ceasefire and there should be a renewed offensive. Even IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, once at loggerheads with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the Gaza City offensive, has now joined calls to close the crossings and block aid.
Videos released after the ceasefire, showing Hamas swiftly reasserting control over areas vacated by the IDF, make it clear the group has not been “defeated”. This has put pressure on Netanyahu, who is now trying to shift the narrative around the war in Gaza from one of revenge and deterrence to a grander “War of Redemption”, according to the new name assigned to the operation.
The Israeli far-Right is already in full voice calling for a return to war. Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir said it was “a shameful retreat by the Prime Minister’s Office” to announce a U-turn on the blockade of aid after only two hours and called for a “return to intense fighting as soon as possible — maneuver, conquest, [and encourage] migration”. But this would not necessarily mean a return to the full-scale war, bombing campaigns and leveled neighborhoods seen in the past two years — not least because something overt would get a reaction from Donald Trump.
These relatively “low-level” exchanges, while they do not seem that way to the families of those killed, may rumble on for some time. If Israel can keep up sporadic strikes in Gaza without being perceived as breaking the ceasefire, as has been the case in Lebanon over the past year, then Bibi will be able to placate his hard-Right coalition partners.
The likes of Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, though their dreams of settling Gaza have been quashed, can be bought off with continued military domination and the indefinite prevention of a Palestinian state, especially given the increasingly free rein given to settlers in the West Bank.
Hamas, clearly, isn’t going to “disarm”. The IDF will not give up any more of the territory it currently holds until that happens and the mooted international peacekeeping force steps in — if such a force ever materializes. The violence will therefore continue, although probably below a level that would cause Trump to intervene.
It increasingly looks like the ceasefire agreement, far from being a multi-step path to peace, essentially entailed the release of the hostages in exchange for Hamas returning to rule in a portion of Gaza. Israel will continue to occupy the rest and return to the status quo ante bellum: “mowing the lawn”.
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