Yesterday, Donald Trump hosted Benjamin Netanyahu in the White House for the third time since the US President returned to office in January. It was a busy day for Bibi, first meeting with US Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, then sitting down with Secretary of State Marco Rubio, before a private dinner in the evening. In true Trumpian style, the press was allowed into the dinner where Netanyahu theatrically nominated his host for the Nobel Peace Prize.

Ominously, Trump still seems to be considering his earlier-stated plan of clearing the Gaza Strip of its inhabitants, claiming he has cooperation from countries in the region. The Israeli Prime Minister said they were trying to find countries which could “give Palestinians a better future”. He added: “If people want to stay, they can stay, but if they want to leave, they should be able to leave.”

Earlier this week, it was discovered that the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, which is overseeing the controversial aid distribution scheme where dozens of Palestinians have been killed, has apparently been planning to build large-scale camps where Gazans could “temporarily reside, deradicalise, re-integrate and prepare to relocate if they wish to do so”. Egypt and Cyprus have been mooted as possible locations.

Meanwhile, Israeli media reported yesterday that Defense Minister Israel Katz has announced plans to move the population of Gaza into a “humanitarian city” in Rafah. According to Katz, 600,000 Palestinians will initially be brought into the Rafah compound, and they will not be allowed to leave. This directly contradicts an earlier statement by IDF Chief Eyal Zamir, who claimed that “moving and concentrating the population” is not a goal of the current military operation.

Despite these schemes, plans for a pause in the fighting seem to be progressing. This morning, a senior Israeli political source told reporters that around 80-90% of a ceasefire deal had been agreed. One sticking point concerns how many Palestinian prisoners should be released, and how high-profile these prisoners should be, with Hamas pushing for the return of the most prominent Palestinians held by Israel, including the popular activist Marwan Barghouti.

Netanyahu’s own political priorities have previously prevented a ceasefire, given that the most Right-wing elements of his coalition had promised to bring down his government if the war ends without the “final defeat” of Hamas. But given the humbling of Hezbollah and Iran, Bibi now feels he has latitude to make some concessions on Gaza, especially given the apparent ending of Hamas control over much of the Strip.

Alienating his far-Right allies may be a move for which Netanyahu is tentatively ready. For Israel to return to a level of peace and not fight a war on three fronts, relations with Saudi Arabia will have to be normalized, as was in process before 7 October 2023. Regional stability also requires some kind of new understanding between Israel and Syria, and Lebanon’s new government if at all possible. After almost two years of bloodshed, Netanyahu may be willing to engage in realpolitik to the chagrin of the nationalist Right. If he can point to diplomatic achievements that bring peace, he might even feel he stands a chance in an inevitable election.

However, the sinister talk of “resettlement” continues, and Netanyahu refuses to accept a fully-fledged Palestinian state. Clearly, an end to the war in Gaza alone will not bring lasting peace to the region.

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David Swift is a historian and author. His next book, Scouse Republic, is available to pre-order now.

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