French President Emmanuel Macron has positioned his country at the forefront of a new diplomatic push on the Israeli–Palestinian conflict, announcing in July that Paris will formally recognise the State of Palestine at the UN General Assembly later this year. Building on that momentum, Macron this week condemned Israel’s plan to seize Gaza City and urged the creation of a UN-mandated peacekeeping mission to stabilise the territory and lay the foundations for a political settlement.

The situation in Gaza is more critical than ever. According to Gaza’s Hamas-affiliated health authorities, over 60,000 Palestinians have been killed and the region is suffering from acute malnutrition. With the stakes this high, France and Saudi Arabia have quietly worked with the Palestinian Authority to find a diplomatic solution. This initiative had been in the works for months, with an announcement originally planned for late June, until Israel’s strikes on Iran derailed the schedule. The ultimate declaration states that “following the ceasefire, a transitional administrative committee must be immediately established to operate in Gaza under the umbrella of the Palestinian Authority.” It also calls for the liberation of hostages and denounces acts of terrorism.

Like many of his predecessors, Macron has struggled to strike the right note on Gaza. After 1945, France was one of Israel’s staunchest partners, even joining Britain in the botched Suez Canal operation of 1956. But by the Sixties, postcolonial France no longer shared a common foe with Israel in Arab nationalism, and instead championed its politique arabe. For decades thereafter, France’s official stance was to support a two-state solution — albeit without formally recognising a Palestinian state.

But international policy is never far from domestic politics. The brutality of Hamas’s attack on 7 October 2023 evoked chilling memories of the 2015 Bataclan attack for much of the French population. It led Macron to call for the creation of an anti-Hamas coalition modelled after the one that had crippled Isis in Syria and Iraq. However, after several months of intense fighting in the Middle East, his tone shifted and he began advocating for a boycott of weapons sales to Israel.

Macron’s hesitations reflect the political divide in France. Marine Le Pen has maintained a firm stance, emphasising the link between “Islamist fundamentalism” in France and Hamas while aligning with the broader pro-Israel shift among Europe’s nationalist parties. On the Left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise has propelled the relatively unknown Franco-Palestinian Rima Hassan into the spotlight for her strong condemnation of Israel. Public opinion remains divided: 22% support unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state, 47% want recognition conditioned on the release of hostages, and 31% oppose recognition altogether.

With no parliamentary majority and legislative deadlock, Macron’s attention is naturally turning towards the exclusive remit of any French president: international affairs. After eight years in office, he lacks a clear diplomatic success. For all the Trump-whispering, the endless meetings with Vladimir Putin, the efforts to bridge the relationship with Algeria, and involvement in the reconstruction of Lebanon, he has little to show for his time in power. As the presidents of Russia and America meet tomorrow to decide on the fate of Ukraine, Macron and his fellow European leaders can only look on helplessly.

The examples listed above were well-intentioned but bold attempts to break diplomatic and political deadlocks. They were perhaps all worth a shot, but ultimately delivered very little. Unfortunately, Macron’s efforts on Palestine are likely to face a similar fate.

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François Valentin is a political analyst and co-host of the Uncommon Decency podcast.

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