When it comes to the war in Ukraine, Friedrich Merz is like a fan at a boxing match: unable to enter the ring himself, but eager to offer advice to his preferred fighter. The Europeans are not actors in the conflict and the steps being taken towards its resolution; all they can do is make demands. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk demanded that Ukraine take part in any conversations which Western leaders hold with Russia. Germany’s Bild declared in a characteristically delusional headline: “Europe imposes red lines on Trump and Putin.”

The Europeans are deeply suspicious about Friday’s summit between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. They are afraid of a peace deal because that would destroy the story they have been telling each for over three years — that Ukraine will win this war and regain most of the Russian-occupied territories. Europe’s tragedy is that its leaders want victory, not a diplomatic peace agreement that cements the military status quo. But they have no means of helping Ukraine achieve victory without the help of the US.

A peace breakthrough this Friday would be a big surprise. More likely is that Putin will make excessive demands which Ukraine will then reject. Trump seems eager to get a deal, but Putin is not under pressure to reach an agreement now. The war is going his way. His army is making slow but steady progress in the Donetsk oblast, and this week broke through an important defence line on the way to Pokrovsk. They may now be in a position to encircle the important industrial city of Kramatorsk — the home to NKMZ, one of the country’s largest industrial companies. The oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk account for 25% of Ukraine’s total industrial output, and they dominate the mining and metallurgical sectors.

If and when a peace deal arrives, territorial trade-offs will likely be part of the discussions. However, they will be of the “net zero” variety. Russia may well demand the parts of Donetsk it does not yet occupy, in exchange for retreating elsewhere. Many other complex issues have to be agreed, specifically concerning the buffer zone and the future security architecture. Peace deals, whichever conflict they cover, respect the military situation on the ground, and things won’t be different in Ukraine.

In the event of a peace deal, the European public will be as shocked as it was when Ursula von der Leyen flew to Scotland last month to sign up to Trump’s trade deal. Nobody prepared them for the climbdown. Newspapers will dutifully report on its diplomatic activity, but the EU is not a principal agent in this war. All the while, it will continue to pretend that it is, getting the popcorn out for yet another round in the ring.

This is an edited version of an article first published in the Eurointelligence newsletter.