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Democrats won’t learn from Supreme Court trans ruling

The Supreme Court ruled in favour of upholding states’ rights to restrict women’s and girls’ sports teams to biological females. Credit: Getty

The Supreme Court ruled in favour of upholding states’ rights to restrict women’s and girls’ sports teams to biological females. Credit: Getty

3 July 2026 - 6:15pm

The six conservative Justices on the US Supreme Court today ruled in favour of upholding states’ rights to restrict women’s and girls’ sports teams to biological females. In January, SCOTUS heard two cases together: Little v. Hecox, from Idaho, concerning a male who transitioned after puberty, and West Virginia v. B.P.J., concerning a male who transitioned before puberty. The cases hinged on whether barring those males from the girls’ teams violated Title IX and the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment, the former of which prevents discrimination “on the basis of sex”.

In their ruling today, the conservative judges were clear. Title IX allows for segregating sports teams by sex “where selection for such teams is based upon competitive skill or the activity involved is a contact sport”. As Justice Kavanaugh, writing for the majority, noted, the regulations “allowed separate sports teams precisely because of the inherent physical differences between biological men and biological women”.

According to Kavanaugh, “sex”, in this context, “cannot plausibly be interpreted to refer to anything other than biological sex”. After all, in 1972, when Title IX passed, “gender identity” was used only in rare medical contexts, and there was no common conception of a sense of being male or female separate from sex.

What was surprising, though, was that all three liberal judges continued to be out of step with even the majority of their political bedfellows, who mostly believe that sports should be segregated by sex rather than gender identity. Justice Sotomayor, joined by Justices Kagan and Jackson, held out for the possibility that a plaintiff like B.P.J — a male minor who took puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones — is an exception to sex, and that the laws only cover some males. The liberal Justices agreed that barring males from female sports doesn’t violate Title IX, but suggested it might violate the Constitution’s Equal Protection Clause because of “unresolved factual questions”.

That is, while we know that male puberty confers an unfair advantage in sport, we don’t know how much advantage is retained when that puberty is blocked and a female puberty is simulated in a male body. After all, B.P.J. may have won West Virginia’s Class state championship in girls’ shot put, but only finished fourth in girls’ discus. Even Penn State swimmer Lia Thomas, who transitioned long after puberty, didn’t win every race against female swimmers.

The conservatives reject such reasoning. Even if kids like B.P.J. retained no physical advantages from being born male, the “empirical claim would not alter the equal protection conclusion”, in the words of the ruling. They’d still be male and still subject to being separated in sports by sex. Those who support division of sports by gender identity often refer to these laws as “bans on transgender athletes”. Of course, they are not. Rather, they’re required to play on teams based on sex; all members of a sex are treated equally, regardless of medical interventions.

That means that some males with blocked puberty won’t be good enough to make the men’s team. As Kavanaugh reminds us, “Title IX regulations guarantee ‘equal athletic opportunity’. The regulations cannot and do not guarantee every student a spot on a team’s roster.”

Parents of kids who have transitioned must impart that just because you have remade yourself doesn’t mean you get to remake the world. It may feel unsafe or unfair to them personally, but it is safer and fairer for almost every other girl on the field. However, it’s unlikely that those parents will pass this on, or that they will see this ruling as anything other than hatred against trans people. It’s unlikely that most Democrats will pivot, either. Just after the ruling, Senator Edward Markey of Massachusetts insisted that the Court “cleared the way for Trump and MAGA Republicans to discriminate against the trans community”.

What’s important about the ruling is that it could clear the way for Americans in Democratic-led states to challenge the policies that allow males in girls’ and women’s sports. As Kavanaugh wrote, “Whether biological males may participate on women’s and girls’ sports teams may be a debated policy question.” But when it comes to the legal right, “West Virginia may do so.”


Lisa Selin Davis is the author of Tomboy. She writes at Broadview on Substack.

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China is threatening America in the AI race

Reports sugget Zhipu AI  has released a new model that can rival leading US systems. Credit: Getty

Reports sugget Zhipu AI has released a new model that can rival leading US systems. Credit: Getty

1 July 2026 - 10:15am

China is trying to catch up with America on artificial intelligence. The Wall Street Journal has reported that Zhipu AI — one of China’s six “AI tiger” LLMs — has released a new model that can rival leading US systems, including Anthropic’s Mythos, in cybersecurity tasks such as pinpointing security bugs. While this marks a milestone in China’s drive to catch up with Western AI capabilities, strong performance on a single benchmark does not mean it has taken the lead. Chinese models still lag behind their Western counterparts in broader capabilities, such as autonomous operation. Scepticism is therefore warranted before resorting to hysterical conclusions, but complacency about the geopolitical implications of China’s AI advances would be an even greater mistake.

On the infrastructure side, Chinese AI is still constrained by access to advanced chips, with American labs way ahead in computing capacity as well as investment. Analysis from earlier this year suggests that Chinese models are likely to be at least a few months behind those in the US. But they are still continuing to make progress, or that the geopolitical importance of AI will be decided only by whose LLM has ventured deeper into the technological frontier. The practical applications of AI, countries’ to capture foreign markets, and the application of AI into the real economy will matter just as much.

Here, China may hold an advantage. As with its dominance across many critical supply chains, Beijing may not need to produce the most advanced AI systems — only those that are affordable and widely deployable. In doing so, it could consolidate global influence by supplying functional, low-cost AI at scale.

Beijing seems to be pursuing exactly that path, developing an AI “open-source” strategy that offers affordable, widely available AI models for companies and individuals to use and modify as they wish. The production of the DeepSeek AI model, which matched the performance of Silicon Valley tools such as ChatGPT at a fraction of the cost for users, created goodwill among Chinese models with developers.

The four most popular models on OpenRouter, an AI hardware platform for developers, are now all Chinese. The goal for China is not only to win the frontier-model race, but to make its systems the default layer of AI adoption across industries and global markets. For most economies, the choice is increasingly between an affordable tool they can deploy now and a more robust one that may be out of reach.

And while the countries adopting Chinese models may be exposed to political pressure and cyber threats from Beijing, safer and more capable alternatives matter little if they are unaffordable. American AI companies are already under pressure to monetise products whose operating costs are rising. If Chinese open-source models become the cheap default for startups, universities, governments and businesses across the developing world, then America’s AI lead will be eroded from below.

Perhaps more concerning for America in the long run is how AI can give Chinese manufacturing even more strength, through the ongoing integration of AI as a general-purpose technology. China’s new Five-Year Plan mentioned AI more than 50 times and includes an “AI+” action plan aimed at spreading AI across the economy.

Beijing has been pioneering automation of its critical infrastructure for years, with promising recent results in increasing warplane production capacity. In that regard, China’s open-model strategy and manufacturing dominance will reinforce each other. Cheap, adaptable models accelerate deployment across the real economy while those deployments generate real-world data and use cases that can feed back into further model improvement.

The United States should not dismiss the importance of its lead in the AI race. That lead worries Beijing, not least because a more automated Chinese economy would also become more vulnerable to AI-generated cyber threats. But nor should Washington assume that China cannot catch up with American capabilities over time.

This AI competition represents part of a broader struggle over tech supply chains and geopolitical influence. Decisions over whether to adopt US or Chinese models could produce a more fragmented global reality, with different regions relying on different cloud providers, chips and security structures. The result will likely be a global economy which is divided into competing spheres, rather than one which produces a single winner.


Miquel Vila is a political and geopolitical risk consultant focusing on industrial strategy, critical infrastructure and global supply chains.

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