Democrats these days seem to have a little pep in their step. Now seven months into Donald Trump’s second term, they are growing optimistic that the president’s controversial start will help boost their prospects in next year’s midterm election.

Indeed, history suggests the out party — or the party that does not control the White House — usually has success in midterm elections. What’s more, polling at this point in the election cycle has shown that Democrats have a slight lead over Republicans in the generic ballot and that their voters are far more energized to turn out next year than Republicans voters.

But despite the rosy outlook about 2026, Democrats continue to suffer from serious structural problems, as evidenced by a new report in the New York Times. According to the paper, of the 30 states where voters register by political party, “Democrats lost ground to Republicans in every single one between the 2020 and 2024 elections — and often by a lot.” They note that this “four-year swing toward the Republicans adds up to 4.5 million voters, a deep political hole that could take years for Democrats to climb out from.”

This trend is also evident in partisan self-identification, or which party voters themselves say they align with. The week before Trump’s second inauguration, Gallup published the results of its annual survey gauging Americans’ party loyalties and found that, for the third straight year, a slim plurality aligned themselves with Republicans, positioning them ahead of Democrats for the first time since 1991. Data from Pew Research last month reinforced this finding and also showed that Republicans have either grown their advantage or narrowed Democrats’ advantage with several key demographic groups since 2020, including men, racial minorities, non-college voters, and young people.

Additionally, voters continue to make clear that they trust Republicans over Democrats on most key issues. In the same Journal poll, respondents overall preferred congressional Republicans on everything from inflation and the economy to foreign policy to immigration and even tariffs. Democrats’ only edge was on healthcare and vaccines. This mirrors post-election polling showing the same thing — a clear sign that Democrats haven’t even come close to fixing their election struggles to this point.

Finally, the Democrats’ evolution as a party that increasingly comprises college-educated, culturally liberal voters who are often clustered in a handful of metro areas continues to make it harder for them to remain consistently competitive in national elections. Since 2012, the states that have voted more Democratic than the country as a whole have failed to total 270 electoral votes. Joe Biden only won in 2020 because he managed to carry several states that leaned to the Right of the nation. In other words, the national playing field has shrunk for the party over the last nine years, and it is putting them at a disadvantage in national elections decided at the state level: the presidency and the US Senate.

Moreover, the 2030 census is expected to exacerbate this problem by taking away electoral votes from states that have historically leaned Democratic due to relative population decline. This heightens the party’s urgency to improve its image in states where the median voter is likely to lean well to the right of its base.

It’s still entirely possible — or even probable — that despite all these deep-rooted issues, Democrats will have a good midterm election next year. In fact, that’s what the oddsmakers still expect. But even if they do well, they must avoid the temptation to over-interpret that success (as they have done in the past) and risk learning the wrong lessons heading into the subsequent presidential election. Their national image continues to need significant improvement, and one election is unlikely to change that.

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Michael Baharaeen is chief political analyst at The Liberal Patriot substack.

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