Actions tend to speak louder than words. At today’s EU-China summit in Beijing, European leaders described an “inflection point” in the relationship between the two parties, yet the Chinese requested that the meeting be cut from two days to one.

This can hardly be attributed to a shortage of issues on the agenda. A genuine moment of upheaval is underway in global trade, as the United States pushes ahead with a new tariff regime. The war in Ukraine is still raging on, and China is a crucial player in the conflict.

While Beijing would never admit it publicly, the Russian war machine would be in serious trouble without Chinese support. According to three European security officials and documents reviewed by Reuters, Chinese-made engines are being secretly sent to a state-owned drone manufacturer in Russia through front companies, mislabelled as “industrial refrigeration units” to evade detection amid Western sanctions. These engines are crucial for the mass production of drones, which have played an outsized role in the war.

Cutting the summit short appears to be a blunt move from China to avoid discussing sensitive topics, such as its ongoing support for Russia, which in turn means that Beijing likely has no intention to change its approach. After all, why discuss something if there is no wiggle room on the issue?

The EU might think it can “warn” China and demand a course correction on Xi Jinping’s Russia policy, but these warnings aren’t currently being taken seriously. In reality, the European Union’s economy — especially its industry — is entirely dependent on China. This dependency extends to 100% of the continent’s heavy rare earth elements, with virtually no domestic alternatives available for critical industries.

Talk of a Sino-European “inflection point” was also referring to the EU’s trade deficit with China, which soared to a record €305.8 billion ($360 billion) last year. Meanwhile, China accounts for almost 30% of global manufacturing output, compared to the EU’s 15%. Ultimately, European industries and consumers alike will seek out Chinese-made products; while America is pursuing an aggressive reshoring policy, the EU has no comparable strategy.

At today’s summit, the real warning came from Xi, who urged European leaders to “make the right strategic choices”. He expressed hope that “the European side will keep the trade and investment market open and refrain from using restrictive economic and trade tools”. He didn’t add “or else”, but he didn’t have to. Beijing could easily cut off European industries and bring the continent’s remnant manufacturing to a halt, while triggering a massive surge in inflation. It is therefore no wonder that China requested a shorter meeting than originally planned: it shouldn’t take 48 hours to deliver the simple message that Beijing has more leverage than Brussels.

Most of the public communiqués will not be willing to admit as much, but the true significance of this summit is the ease with which the Chinese can afford to dismiss the Europeans. The question is whether the “inflection point” will change this dynamic, or only entrench it further.

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Ralph Schoellhammer is assistant professor of International Relations at Webster University, Vienna.

Raphfel

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