A few decades ago, a US presidential tour of the Middle East would have confirmed Washington’s commitment to the region. This time, however, is different. The Trump administration’s approach largely revolves around decoupling from the region, and the US President’s visit this week seemingly serves the key purpose of tying up loose ends. Perhaps the most significant of these is his move to seal the end of Opec. In a surprise move, Saudi Arabia has announced that it will increase crude production, thereby bolstering Donald Trump’s desire to lower oil prices to the vicinity of $50 per barrel.

Like most cartels, Opec has become a victim of its own success. Keeping prices above the equilibrium price defined by supply and demand incentivised American entrepreneurs to go all-in on the shale revolution. The United States has turned from a net energy importer to a net energy exporter, a goal once considered impossible. Together with Saudi Arabia and Russia, it is now among the top three global hydrocarbon producers. Put differently, the US no longer needs the Middle East as a resource base. The future sources of energy will be Texas, California, Argentina, Brazil, and Venezuela. Meanwhile, Middle Eastern oil and gas will remain relevant for Asia and Europe but not the United States.

Trump is neither a full-blown isolationist nor an imperialist, but instead someone who wants to do away with “nuisances” in international politics. Under this framework, it is easier to understand why, for example, his “patience with Netanyahu is running out” or why he is keen on making a deal with Iran. Nonetheless, Washington maintains an interest in keeping some nations more in its orbit than others, and yesterday’s announcement of arms sales to Saudi Arabia combined with reciprocal investments between the two countries shows that the US will not turn its back entirely on the region.

America will, however, be much more transactional in its approach. It will build Saudi Arabia’s infrastructure and provide a degree of military protection, but in exchange Riyadh will contribute to keeping the region as peaceful as possible. This could mean joining the Abraham Accords but also — more importantly — ensuring that Syria will not once again become a breeding ground for international terrorism. Trump’s meeting today with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, along with his decision to lift existing sanctions, signalled that he cares little about how Islamic the country’s new government is — as long as its extremism is contained.

As the US shifts its focus towards energy independence and addresses domestic economic issues, its approach to the Middle East has transformed significantly. The weakening of Opec underscores a broader shift in international energy dynamics, with Saudi Arabia playing a pivotal role. The Middle East may no longer be central to US energy needs, but regional stability remains crucial. This evolving partnership, especially with the Saudis, indicates that while the US may reduce its footprint, it still values certain alliances in maintaining geopolitical balance. The future of US involvement in the Middle East is therefore likely to involve a pragmatic approach, driven by economic and strategic interests rather than ideological commitments.

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Ralph Schoellhammer is assistant professor of International Relations at Webster University, Vienna.

Raphfel

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