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The center of Europe’s migrant crisis has shifted

ROME, ITALY - JULY 22: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni waits to welcome the next President of the European Council Antonio Costa (not in picture) before their meeting at Palazzo Chigi, on July 22, 2024 in Rome, Italy. Antonio Costa will take office as European Council president on December 1, 2024. (Photo by Antonio Masiello/Getty Images)

August 31, 2024 - 1:00pm

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was elected on a pledge to tackle illegal migration to Italy across the Mediterranean. Now data suggests her hardline approach — which has seen another NGO migrant rescue ship impounded this week — is reaping rewards.

The Geo Barents search and rescue vessel, operated by Doctors Without Borders, was detained for 60 days after the ship disembarked 191 migrants in Salerno, a port city south of Naples. The ship had carried out a night-time rescue operation in the central Mediterranean after crew members saw people falling overboard from a small boat. Out of the 191 migrants rescued, three are women and 23 are unaccompanied minors.

Meloni and her government maintain that the operation of these foreign NGO rescue ships constitutes a major ‘pull factor’ encouraging migrants to make the perilous voyage across the Mediterranean. Doctors Without Borders, meanwhile, claims it has ‘no choice’ but to rescue those in need and that the impounding of the Geo Barents was an ‘arbitrary and inhumane decision’. The ethics of the activities of NGO rescue ships remain a topic for passionate debate: on Wednesday Pope Francis condemned ‘those who work systematically and with every means to reject migrants.’

Cold, hard facts cannot be ignored, however, and Meloni’s approach appears to be having a significant impact in curbing people smuggling in the Mediterranean. Figures from the International Organization for Migration show a decrease of 63% from the previous year in illegal boat migration to Italy, contributing to a wider 30.6% fall in irregular seaborne arrivals to the EU as a whole.

The ultimate drivers of mass illegal migration flows are, of course, beyond the control of Meloni or any other individual leader — and the migrant crisis never ends, but simply moves elsewhere. While the Italian government celebrated a dramatic year-on-year decrease, the Canary Islands bewailed a 126% increase in small boat arrivals during the same period. The Greek islands also experienced a 57% increase in the last year.

When it comes to illegal migration, good news for one country often means bad news for another, as demonstrated by the EU’s ongoing, bitter internal disputes over ‘solidarity’ in the form of compulsory migrant relocation. In this fraught context, EU leaders have been increasingly shifting their focus to external solutions in order to tackle migration at the source – with Meloni again shaping the bloc’s approach.

A controversial new Italian move to normalize relations with Syria appears to be the latest gambit in an EU program incentivizing North African states to deter people smugglers, while providing logistical and financial support. Having cut ties with Damascus in 2012 alongside EU allies, Italy is now pushing for resumed EU cooperation with the Assad regime, explicitly citing the continued outflow of Syrians into other countries as a reason for the EU to re-establish diplomatic ties.

Whether or not other EU countries follow suit will say much about Meloni’s ability to mold EU foreign policy in line with her anti-migration agenda. The appointment of a new Italian ambassador to Damascus and the hotly-debated impounding of the Geo Barents suggest Italy’s approach will only become sterner in light of its success to date in cutting seaborne migration. It seems, though, that the epicenter of the problem has only shifted elsewhere in Europe.


William Nattrass is a British journalist based in Prague and news editor of Expats.cz

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