As an engineer, Kemi Badenoch is surely familiar with the concept of positive feedback loops. She must be wondering if her own party is entering a terminal one.

A positive feedback loop, simply put, is a process where an initial stimulus triggers a response that amplifies the original stimulus — leading, eventually, to a snowball effect. The initial stimulus in question? The mercurial talents and toxic legacy of one Boris Johnson.

Rumours have begun that senior Conservatives are already plotting to oust Kemi Badenoch — less than six months into the job — and reinstall the former PM. The move comes as the party plunges to fourth place in the polls, behind the Liberal Democrats, according to recent YouGov data. Fear is growing among party members, with some viewing Johnson as the only figure capable of taking on Nigel Farage and reviving the party’s fortunes, particularly in key areas like the Red Wall.

The scale of the challenges facing Badenoch as leader would test even the finest Victorian engineers. And no one bears more responsibility for them than Johnson himself. Chief among these is the so-called “Boriswave” — a post-Brexit immigration surge driven by relaxed entry criteria, which pushed net migration to a record high of over one million arrivals per year.

This influx has driven the electorate away from the Conservatives. As the post-election Onward report outlined, the clearest and most widely shared grievance with the last government, across nearly all voter groups, was its handling of immigration. Both former Tory voters and those who remain loyal overwhelmingly prefer a significant reduction in immigration — even those who defected to the Lib Dems considered it their primary policy concern.

The exodus isn’t limited to disillusioned voters. Activists, donors, and former officeholders are also drifting toward Reform UK, convinced the Conservatives have abandoned their core values. Tory membership has fallen below 100,000, while Reform claims close to a quarter of a million. High-profile defections include prominent donors and political figures such as Andrea Jenkyns — once a Conservative MP, now Reform Mayor of Greater Lincolnshire — and Sarah Pochin, a former Tory councillor turned Reform MP for Runcorn and Helsby.

The effect of these departures is to strip the party of its most Right-wing voices. Without them, it makes the possibility of Johnson’s return all the more likely. Indeed, many of Johnson’s remaining supporters believe that the PM’s fall was the result of a hostile media and parliamentary plotting, rather than the elevation of a known liberal and opportunist to deliver a manifesto he was unsuited to deliver. For them, to paraphrase Kennedy, the dream lives on: Boris, who delivered a staggering majority in 2019, remains the only figure they believe can do it again.

But even if Johnson were to return, the electoral landscape looks very different now compared to 2019. Boris now finds himself caught in a brutal pincer: Keir Starmer, who in practical terms stands to his Right on immigration, and Nigel Farage, who rhetorically outflanks him from the same side. The backlash to his perceived betrayal helped propel Starmer to No.10 — and now fuels Reform’s ascent.

“If ever I was foxed,” wrote Pepys, “‘tis now.” Badenoch must feel the same way; she is being outfoxed by her own party. The very man whose premiership catalysed the Conservative collapse is being touted as its saviour. To bring Johnson back in hopes of defeating both Farage and Starmer is to double down on the original mistake. Despite her best efforts, Badenoch may find there’s little she can do to breathe life into a broken machine. She risks becoming just another part the system grinds through on its self-destructive path.

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Tom Jones writes at The Potemkin Village Idiot.

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