August 4, 2024 - 1:00pm

For much of the last several years, those most supportive of Israel have been encouraged by Keir Starmer and his project to change the Labour Party. They clapped when he withdrew the whip from Jeremy Corbyn. They swooned as the new leadership seemingly stitched up races to exclude Left-wing parliamentary candidates. And they cooed as Starmer refused to initially call for a ceasefire in Gaza. Labour, it seemed, had set a decisive new course on foreign policy — nowhere more so than on Israel-Palestine.

So imagine my surprise when Stephen Pollard, formerly editor at the Jewish Chronicle, wrote how there is “little of consequence” distinguishing Starmer from his Labour predecessor. I concur with Pollard on virtually nothing, but here we agree. After all, within weeks of taking office Labour not only restored funding to UNWRA, but also dropped an application to block the ICC from issuing arrest warrants for both Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant.

John Healey, the Secretary of State for Defence, even claimed that failure to respect the ICC’s decision would threaten the “rules-based order”. This was not merely a cold recognition of the political facts — including the possibility that the PM of an ally might face arrest — but a full-throated endorsement of them.

But it doesn’t end there, because the British government now seemingly intends to suspend arms sales to Israel in the coming months too. As with the UNWRA decision, and the shift on the ICC, that would mark yet another step which critics might regard as “Corbynite”. Yet it is being managed by the man who razed that project to the ground.

For now that decision is on ice — partly because of the crisis in Lebanon, but also the slow-burn confrontation with Iran. Yet the mood music couldn’t be clearer: London is no longer an uncritical friend of Tel Aviv. More importantly, it is not only a red line between Starmer and the Conservative Party that has developed — perhaps uniquely so on foreign policy — but with Washington too.

The UK accounts for a tiny fraction of arms sales to Israel, with just £18.2 million of exports recorded last year. In truth only two nations matter in this regard, with the US and Germany accounting for almost all of Israel’s defence imports over the last half decade. Nevertheless, a potential embargo by Britain would be the most drastic step yet, serving to not only isolate Netanyahu further, but underscoring how Europe no longer supports Israel by default. Much has been made of Ireland, Norway and Spain recognising the state of Palestine. But in the short term it is perhaps more notable that a court blocked the Dutch government from delivering F-35 parts earlier this year, while the likes of Italy and Canada have banned arms sales to the country.

That Starmer would follow such a lead is all the more noteworthy given the historic support for Zionism within the Labour party — from Ian Mikardo to Harold Wilson. While it is lost on most commentators today, Nye Bevan was a founding member of Labour Friends of Israel, with Zionism as core to the party’s Left as its Right (Michael Foot once stated he would have joined the Haganah were he Jewish). The Left’s turn against Israel has been decades in the making — and culminated in the Corbyn years. But Starmer’s actions prove something deeper still has shifted. And there is likely no going back.

But why? Two trends can be observed. The first is that the Europeans increasingly grasp the importance of international law and the pretence of a “rules-based order” given the challenge of Putin’s Russia. Allowing continued war crimes in Gaza merely provides Moscow a licence to plunge ever deeper into its wounded neighbour. If the IDF can use Hermes drones to kill aid workers in Gaza (British ones at that), then why can’t Russia use Mohajer drones against civilians in Kyiv? Europe’s politicians have rightly expressed their disgust at the latter — and they increasingly know global opinion is against them unless they correct an obvious double standard.

But in Britain there is another logic running parallel to this: the rise of political forces to the Left of Labour which are sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. At the height of the Blair supremacy, Peter Mandelson (wrongly) conjectured that working class voters would always stay with Labour because “there was nowhere to go”. And on foreign policy that was proven decisively wrong as five pro-Gaza independents were elected to Parliament last month. Historically speaking, 9.7 million votes has never won a majority of one — let alone 172 — so Starmer can not afford to shrink his coalition any further.

The cracks between London and Washington will likely become a canyon in the event of a second Trump Presidency — the prospect of which partly explains Europe’s growing capacity to defy its big brother across the Atlantic. If that happens Starmer may have to be more of a radical on foreign policy than he ever previously envisaged. The Conservative Party, meanwhile, will have to determine whether they are swimming with their sister parties on the continent — or still grasping for a status quo that already feels like something from a bygone age.


Aaron Bastani is the co-founder of Novara Media, and the author of Fully Automated Luxury Communism. 

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