I can’t understand Tugendhat’s appeal in the slightest. On domestic politics he has virtually nothing coherent to say, while on international affairs he generally repeats platitudes or whatever the Atlanticist think tanks are saying. But there’s something else I can’t shake: if that’s what moderate Tories are into, then why not Jeremy Hunt?

Hunt is evidently a decent campaigner. After all, his seat of Godalming and Ash is the only target the Liberal Democrats failed to win in July. Chichester, that Tory citadel for a century, fell last month — as did much of the Gails Front. But Hunt’s Surrey seat proved a hardy redoubt. For Labour he would be the biggest concern as Tory Party leader, particularly if he could surround himself with serious people and craft a distinct political message. Not likely, but also not impossible.

Look at where the lowest hanging fruit is on the electoral map. Last month, along the now battered ‘Blue Wall’, 38 previously Conservative constituencies voted Liberal Democrat. Yes, the most popular party for deserting Tories was Reform, but looking at the seats the Conservatives just lost — and are most likely to regain — it’s a different story. Places such as Eastbourne and Horsham are as Tory as it gets — not to mention West Dorset, which had continuously voted Conservative since 1885. Similar seats include South Devon, Woking, Guildford and St Ives, while Labour picked up Worthing, both Bournemouth constituencies and Basingstoke. The ideal Tory prototype to appeal to voters in such places would undoubtedly look and sound like Jeremy Hunt.

Hunt obviously has baggage. He lost in a previous leadership contest and, more importantly, he was the chancellor in a historically unpopular government. And yet the job now is one of opposition — an occupation that seemingly suits the former health secretary. While of course being a good LOTO isn’t sufficient for the Conservatives to return to power, the objective of the next election is avoiding extinction and pulling off a gentle recovery. This itself has two aspects: minimizing any Reform gains, and taking back as much of the Blue Wall as possible. Going Right, as Badenoch and Jenrick would do, might — if anything — deter Remain-voting southerners.

Despite our different politics it appears Tory party members agree with me, at least to a point. Recent polling by Conservative Home had Hunt as the second most popular figure in the Shadow Cabinet (up from second least popular when in government). Back then he was on -22. Now he is on +27.

With the party looking listless and defeated, Hunt has offered competent, confident leadership (still as Sunak’s number two) while Rachel Reeves gets her feet under the table. In a few months he may be more popular still, and far more so than any of the leadership candidates, particularly if growth remains robust and inflation stays low. Those would be his accomplishments, Hunt might say. It’s a lot more than Badenoch, Tugendhat or Jenrick can muster.

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Aaron Bastani is the co-founder of Novara Media, and the author of Fully Automated Luxury Communism. 

AaronBastani

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