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Is Macron staging a coup against the French constitution?

PARIS, FRANCE - APRIL 4: France's President Emmanuel Macron waits for the arrival of Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer at Elysee Palace on April 4, 2024 in Paris, France. The President of France and Austrian Chancellor met to discuss bilateral cooperation across security and education sectors. (Photo by Christian Liewig - Corbis/Corbis via Getty Images)

August 30, 2024 - 1:00pm

The most important number in French politics is 123. It’s the difference between the number of deputies in the National Assembly who support President Emmanuel Macron (166) and the number required for a majority (289). So far, this has proved to be an unbridgeable gap. Eight weeks on from the last set of legislative elections, France is still without a prime minister.

The largest alliance in the assembly — the Left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) — tried to put forward its own candidate for PM, Lucie Castets. But to much online fury, Macron rejected her this week, provoking accusations that he is mounting a coup. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the radical La France Insoumise (LFI), wants the President impeached, and communist chief Fabien Roussel is calling for massive protests.

These tactics won’t work. First of all, there’s nothing in the French constitution that says that the largest parliamentary faction gets to choose the prime minister, unless it’s large enough to command a majority. What’s more, Castets lacks popular backing: the latest polling only gives her 26% support compared to 41% for caretaker PM Gabriel Attal.

As for impeaching Macron, that would require a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly, which the Left won’t get unless it unites the entire opposition, including its Right-wing enemies. Strikes, marches and riots won’t work either. Macron survived the Gilets Jaunes protests so he’s likely to survive the NFP’s tantrum.

Even if France does burn again, that would only give Macron a pretext to invoke Article 16 of the constitution and rule by presidential decree. It would be a last resort, of course, but he could use another constitutional weapon: Article 49, which allows important legislation to be passed through the National Assembly without a vote.

With a budget that needs to be approved in the next few weeks, this would stop the hung parliament from paralyzing his presidency. But there’s a catch. The Article 49 powers are specifically bestowed on the prime minister, which is why Macron desperately needs one in place to do his bidding.

But where will he get the 123 extra votes required to control the selection? Even if he secures the support of the moderate conservative deputies and some independents, he’d also need his former comrades in the center-left Socialist Party. But try as he might to prise them loose from the New Popular Front, they won’t budge. Yet another set of fresh elections might help, but Macron has to wait a year before dissolving the National Assembly again.

On the assumption that he doesn’t capitulate to the Left or, less likely still, do a deal with Marine Le Pen, Macron has only one way forward and that is to continue ruling through an acting prime minister. But the longer that goes on, the more that the acting government looks like a permanent arrangement. With the support of only 166 out of 577 deputies, the accusations of a presidential coup would gain credibility.

It would look all the worse considering that in 2019 during the Grand Débat, or Great Debate, which became one of the largest ever exercises in democratic consultation, Macron said: ‘the reality is that the president should not be able to stay in power if he is truly rejected by a majority.’ Yesterday, a Le Figaro poll found that 74% of French people do not have confidence that Macron will name a government responsive to their needs.

That’s a massive problem for Macron, but also for the French constitution which enables this farce. After 65 years of the Fifth Republic, perhaps it’s time for a Sixth.


Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.

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