“Ross, can you see me now?” cried Davy Russell, the new Labour MSP for Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, in his victory speech last night. The Reform candidate, Ross Lambie, had dubbed Russell “the invisible man” because of his reluctance to appear in the customary STV by-election debates. But against the forecasts of the bookmakers and most media pundits, the plain-speaking former council worker won the most fiercely contested by-election in recent Scottish history with a majority of 602 votes.

Russell won on a 2% swing and pushed the SNP’s Katy Loudon — who had hoped to hold the Lanarkshire seat formerly held by her late colleague Christina McKelvie MSP — into second place. He had every reason to be satisfied with his success, particularly after the First Minister, John Swinney, had insisted that this by-election was a “two-horse race between the SNP and Reform”. It turned out to be a race for runner-up, and the SNP will be deeply worried that it only managed to beat Reform into second place by 800-odd votes.

“A remarkable result, absolutely delighted,” said Reform’s deputy leader, Richard Tice, putting on a brave face and batting away questions about banning the burqa and the resignation that very day of Reform’s chairman, Zia Yusuf. He was clearly disappointed not to have come second.

But, as Professor John Curtice indicated, Reform’s 26% swing in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse was a very significant result. “The Scottish Conservatives,” said the polling guru, “have been taken for breakfast, lunch and dinner by Reform.” The Scottish Tory candidate, Richard Nelson, came fourth with 1,600 votes and was fortunate not to lose his deposit.

Reform was perhaps the victim of unrealistic expectations. And make no mistake — the party is now a political force north of the border. Reform’s vote share here was significantly higher than the 19% it has been recording in recent Holyrood opinion polls. It will likely be a significant presence in the Scottish Parliament next year.

Nigel Farage may remain an unpopular figure in Scotland, but his party has demonstrated that the disenchantment with the establishment parties that has propelled Reform south of the border also exists in Scotland. If nothing else, the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election has introduced a new word into politics: the “scunner” factor. It is an old Scots word which roughly means to be in a state of disgusted irritation. And there is no doubt that there was a lot of disgusted irritation on the streets — at least in Hamilton itself — where most of the media conducted their vox pops.

The reasons are legion: cost of living, price of heating, winter fuel payment, lack of decent jobs, shabby high streets, potholes — and even a degree of irritation about immigration, which is not an issue that normally arises on the doorsteps in Scotland. Reform picked up on that and ran with it, accusing the Scottish Labour leader of being in politics to “prioritise” the interests of the Pakistani community.

This was widely attacked by opposition parties and the media as being “blatantly racist”. Whatever the case, it was the first time anyone can remember a Scottish by-election turning explicitly on race. And significantly, playing the race card did not prevent Reform from running Labour and the SNP very close in a tight three-cornered fight.

The dog that didn’t bark was independence. There was scarcely a mention of the constitution, referendums or separatism in this contest. Nor did the victorious candidate have much to say in this campaign, having largely avoided media exposure. It has always been assumed that candidates in by-elections must participate in televised debates if they want to be taken seriously. Russell shows that this may no longer be the case. TV channels will be hoping the “invisible man” approach doesn’t catch on.

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Iain Macwhirter was political commentator for The Herald between 1999 and 2022. He is the author of Disunited Kingdom: How Westminster Won a Referendum But Lost Scotland.

iainmacwhirter

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