The epic partnership between Donald Trump and Elon Musk is over and is giving way to what promises to be an equally epic fight. Ostensibly, their breakup is over the administration’s “big, beautiful bill.” But the deeper logic of their relationship, that between two titanic egos, suggested that any such collaboration was always going to be fragile — and temporary.

With no sign of a rapprochement, speculation is rife about whether the X mogul will defect. It wasn’t too long ago, after all, when Musk enjoyed a positive (and lucrative) relationship with the Democratic establishment. Silicon Valley’s Rep. Ro Khanna, along with a few others, are hoping to take him back, saying: “We should ultimately be trying to convince him that the Democratic Party has more of the values that he agrees with.” Yet Khanna may be misreading the room, if not inhabiting a different reality altogether.

Judging by the visceral reactions from other prominent Democrats, they are not likely to forgive or forget Musk’s transgressions against their sacred cows. DOGE has cut down many of the federal government structures and institutions held dear by Democratic constituencies (even as Musk firms like Tesla and Space X continued to benefit from state largesse). Rep. Ritchie Torres even called Musk’s “decimation” of government “an unforgivable sin.” Perhaps graver still, Musk has dedicated all his cultural influence to the war on woke, blasting the progressive “mind virus” and boosting hard-Right forces at home and abroad. As Leftist tribune Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez put it: “I don’t associate myself with someone who does Nazi salutes in public.” In other words, the bad blood is real.

So where does this leave Musk? Spurned by both sides, he may realise that he’s become a pariah and try to forge a way back into Trump’s good graces. However, he might also find that the privileged spot he once enjoyed at the president’s side will be taken by then.

For one, Steve Bannon, his nemesis within MAGA world, has been howling for his blood, calling for his immigration history to be investigated. And even more threatening to Musk’s status is the prospect that a rival tech tycoon will simply replace him as “most favoured oligarch.” Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg, Amazon’s Jeff Bezos, and OpenAI’s Sam Altman have all proven to be just as nakedly ambitious and transactional in their own dealings with the administration but in a way that is far more disciplined — and less flamboyant. They know better than to try to steal the show from Trump, a lesson Musk has never learned.

There could be another option: Musk forms a political coalition of his own, a third force of sorts that would be distinct from MAGA and the Left. Indeed, Musk has already called for a “new political party that actually represents the 80% in the middle”. But, of course, as Trump himself discovered long ago, there are only two paths to power in America, red and blue. Having alienated both, Musk may have to watch from the sidelines as all the perks and contracts once lavished on him by Republicans and Democrats alike go to someone else.

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Michael Cuenco is a writer on policy and politics. He is Senior Editor at American Affairs.

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