An encouraging endorsement for Kemi Badenoch has appeared in Middle England’s favourite tabloid. In an editorial, the Daily Mail declares that “the death of the Tory Party has been greatly exaggerated”. Better still for the Conservative leader, it is she who gets the credit. Badenoch is praised as “thoughtful”, “determined” and a “politician of substance”.

Just as importantly, there’s criticism for Nigel Farage: “For all that he is a charismatic politician, with a gift for tapping into the concerns of ordinary Britons, his policies so far lack credibility.” For instance, the authors of the editorial don’t like his plan to increase the tax-free allowance to £20,000 per year — given the “eyewatering” annual cost of £80 billion. Then there’s Farage’s pledge to lift the two-child benefits cap, which is dismissed as “baffling”. There’s also mention of Reform UK’s “frequent damaging rows”.

Fleet Street endorsements aren’t as crucial as they used to be, but this editorial matters. For one thing, it serves as a warning to Farage. He will have to earn the support of the wider British Right. Meanwhile, the continued backing of the Mail will help steady Tory nerves, which is crucial if the party is to avoid further splits and defections.

It’s also worth noting the coincidence of two facts: firstly, that the Mail is unique among the national newspapers in having more female than male readers; and, secondly, the More in Common finding that women are propping up Tory poll ratings (while men defect in significantly greater numbers to Reform). Could it be that Badenoch’s cautious conservatism appeals to an under-appreciated tendency within the British electorate?

Of course, even if the Tories are beginning to find a reliably firm floor to their support, it’s still far too low for comfort. In its modern form, the Conservative Party has been knocking around since 1834. In all that time, its vote share at a general election has never dipped below 30% — until last year’s contest when it crashed to 24%. Now, its poll ratings are even lower at an average of 17%. That would mean the Tories are losing most of the 121 seats they won under Rishi Sunak.

In an interview with the BBC on Friday, Badenoch claimed that her party had “hit rock bottom” in 2024. That, of course, implies the Conservatives have no further to fall. But as the polls tell us — not to mention last month’s local elections — this isn’t true.

In terms of seats, the Tories managed to come second last time, thereby exchanging the trappings of ministerial office for the status of official opposition. If, however, their vote share falls south of 20%, it won’t just be a case of coming behind Reform and Labour, but also the Lib Dems and even the SNP. Far from having hit rock bottom, the Conservatives are on the brink of extinction as a major political party.

For all her appeals to cold hard reality, it’s this sense of peril that’s missing from Badenoch’s rhetoric. It’s also missing from the Daily Mail editorial — and in that respect, the newspaper has done her no favours. True enough, the Tories aren’t dead yet, but they’ve never been closer to the end.

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Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.

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