August 11, 2024 - 8:00am
The 2024 general election stands out as a remarkable exception in post-war British history. Five independents were elected, four for the first time. One of those was former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who is now planning to form a grouping of five independents.
The potential grouping would draw together five independents who campaigned on a pro-Palestinian platform. With the exception of Corbyn, these candidates won in seats with significant Muslim populations (roughly a third to half of voters). By contrast, the Greens’ coalition, represented by four MPs, is divided evenly between two university-dominated urban seats (Brighton Pavilion and Bristol Central) and rural affluence (Waveney Valley and North Herefordshire). Reform, which has five MPs, won in poorer areas of East Anglia and the East Midlands, ex-Conservative seats, some of which had been top Labour targets.
Separately, the independents, Greens, and Reform represent three sources of weakness for Labour. There is discontent among Muslim working-class voters. Affluent urban radicals are not keen on Starmer’s Labour either. Socially conservative, older, white working-class voters remain beyond Labour’s reach. In different ways, they all are the consequences of Labour’s neglect of different parts of its electoral base.
Elected on a day in which Labour won 411 seats, however, these MPs pose no immediate threat to the Labour government. Furthermore, Starmer has been blasé about holding onto even the MPs elected for Labour at the general election. Barely three weeks into office, Starmer suspended seven of them for voting to remove the two-child cap on certain benefits.
Could Corbyn’s new grouping challenge Keir Starmer from the Left? It is possible that he will do so, but it seems unlikely to have much of an impact. For one, this grouping would not get additional funds. Short money, public funding for opposition parties, is not calculated on the basis of post-election groupings but on strength at the election.
In absence of a hung parliament, their influence on the outcome of parliamentary votes seems limited. In contrast, back in the late 1970s, tiny groupings of MPs could wield enormous influence because the Labour government was fighting for every vote to stay alive. Various (costly) promises were made to small-party MPs in the final months of the Callaghan government. Theresa May did something similar with the DUP after losing her majority in 2017. Now, the parliamentary arithmetic doesn’t lend itself to this kind of influence.
The record of “independent groups” in Parliament is not encouraging, either. The anti-Brexit “The Independent Group’”(and its many iterations), which lived and died in 2019, is the most recent and obvious example. All MPs who joined it lost their seats.
One possible path would be for this Left/independent group eventually to merge with the Green Party. I expect the Greens to become an increasing thorn in Labour’s side, especially in council elections in the upcoming years. At the next general election, a stronger Green Party could cost Labour seats, if not by winning very many more but by fragmenting the Left-wing vote further and letting in the Conservatives in a number of seats, should they recover some ground.
The relative success, in historical terms, of small parties and independent candidates at the 2024 election is not an immediate risk for the Labour government. They are, however, a warning sign of future dangers for Labour. Starmer (rightly) believes that elections cannot be won simply by appealing to one’s own base. But, if the base cracks into tiny fragments, then little else can be built upon it, including victory at the next general election.
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SubscribeJust the other day, ther was another article here saying that if they do group together they would get “short money”. Which is which?
Interesting article, but I think it got off to a poor start: “The 2024 general election stands out as a remarkable exception in post-war British history. Six independents were elected, four for the first time.” I suggest that the author look at the results of the first post-war general election (1945). Apart from the Lib/Lab/Con seats, the party affiliations of the other MPS were:
Ulster Unionist: 33,
Scottish Unionist: 24,
National Liberal:11,
Nationalist (Irish): 10
Independent: 8,
National: 2,
Common Wealth: 1,
Communist: 2;
National Independent: 2,
Independent Labour: 2,
Ind. Conservative: 2,
Ind. Labour Party: 3,
Independent Progressive: 1,
Independent Liberal: 2,
Socialist Republican: 1
The difference between 1945 and 2024 is that in 1945, Labour and the Conservatives got between them, 86% of the vote. In 2024, this had shrunk to 56%. Add in the unprecedentedly low turnout, and it’s clear there are storm clouds on the horizon for someone.
So Dr. Johnson is right to flag the importance of the apparently minor parties. This parliament could be extraordinarily volatile, and well worth watching.
Greens and independents were the runners up in 56 of the seats won by Labour in the last election. By contrast, Conservatives or Reform were the runners up in 308 Labour held consistencies. Starmer needs to focus on shoring up Labour’s right flank, more than its left.
Very good observation! Here in Scotland, after 2010 general election, the SNP only had 6 MPs, but they were second in 31 of the 59 constituencies (and a close third in a whole lot more). In the next election, they took all but three of the Scottish seats.
No. Corbin is finished, he is in his death throes as a politician so no one cares what he does.. .. truth is there are more significant and immediate dangers to our country that need fixing and two tier Kier is neither capable or willing to address this, he’s a manager not a leader, and dull as ditchwater. He’s shown his intent early doors; Chinese style surveillance of the majority, outlawing free speech and cosying up to his myriad minorities through the double speak of DEI and communities. He’s devoid of ideas and will frame the budget as not made here, he’ll force the police to ingratiate themselves to enemy communities who contribute nothing and maintain barbarous practices when not preying on the host nation. He’s too afraid to do what the people are telling him and has no intention of listening until we’re all too frightened to breathe (someone tried that a while ago flying a swastica) No, neither his party or the others have what it takes to represent the interests of the majority because quite simply they’ve no interest in democracy. Two tier Keir and his type of which Lady Thornberry is the complete example, despise the English and have nothing but contempt for their people. He’ll maintain his dissembling narrative to demonise all and any dissenters while he destroys what’s left of our parliament and rule of law. He’ll forcibly rob the hard working and ambitious and re-write the curriculum to promote equality of outcome, confirming that work doesn’t pay while also wondering how to improve productivity. No, two tier only has the stick, he’s a headmaster, knows he’s right, there are no other opinions worthy of his ear. Likes nothing more than wielding his power prosecuting his own hoping we’ll submit.
Possible, I’d say. Labour won a bigger majority than they expected, and in consequence will have MP’s that nobody expected to win. Amongst whom will be numbers of nutjobs, some so left-wing they make Galloway look like a thoughtful moderate…
FPTP has clear deficiencies but it’s bequeathed us a stable Govt for c5years and that’s a good thing. A weak coalition was not a prospect we could afford. Helps it’s led by someone with proper experience in leading a big organisation too. Early days though.
Slight aside on the Pro-Palestinian/Muslim victories – Gaza unlikely to be as visceral a dividing line come 2029 and noticeable how Muslim communities largely quelled any over reaction to the riots from their young, which was quite possible. There’s a bedrock of good sense and community. We may think the riots showed us divided yet just perhaps history may show we came together much more than the racists like to think.
Which riots? The Muslim ones or the scrappy “far right” ones?
Corbyn doesn’t need to set up a new party he could should re- join the Mad Hatters Tea party.