For the past few months, the world has watched as Israel has faced mounting domestic turmoil. On the face of it, the mass protest movement that has formed in response to Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is aimed at preventing an overhaul of the court system that seeks to reform the traditionally powerful Israeli judiciary. But there is a much deeper trend at play: the electoral rise of the country’s ultra-Orthodox population.
The question of Israel’s ultra-Orthodox, or “Haredim” in Hebrew, has long been the third rail of Israeli politics. The ultra-Orthodox community has traditionally served as a stop-gap in Israeli governing coalitions, presenting as a willing quid-pro-quo partner that could fill out a coalition with the requisite seats needed to form a government. The exchange was simple: the coalition takes care of a few key demands by ultra-Orthodox parties, like the funding of state-sponsored yeshivas or centres of religious study, and the ultra-Orthodox parties offer a willing vote on most issues.
This was even the case with Netanyahu’s government, whose Knesset Speaker, Amir Ohana, is openly gay (ultra-Orthodox members of the administration walked out during his swearing-in). But with 18 of the current government’s 64 seats coming from ultra-Orthodox parties — and another 13 coming from religious Right-wing parties — we are witnessing a major shift. For the first time, Israel’s secular Left has seen its deepest demographic fears spring to life.
With ultra-Orthodox birthrates at nearly seven births per woman — nearly triple that of secular Israelis — electoral supremacy by Israel’s religious faction is a virtual foregone conclusion. While the secular Left has known this for some time, never before has it been a political reality. Now it is.
This marks a significant sea change. For most of the past 70 years, Israel’s Labor Party ruled the country politically, economically and culturally. Its most cherished institutions, including the IDF, were dominated by Labor. This dominance began to fracture in the years after the First Intifada, and finally shattered with Labor dropping from a major party to a political afterthought. It now has a pitiful four seats in the Knesset. The greatest strength of the secular Left, its unity, was lost.
For most secular Israelis, the court represents the last bulwark against what they see as a complete re-writing of the state’s national code by religious voters. Since the days of Aharon Barak, Israel’s famously activist former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, Israel’s judiciary has not been shy about striking down laws passed by the Knesset.
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