A pipeline of natural gas from Russia to the West is also, in effect, a pipeline of money from the West to Russia. Neither side can cut off supplies to the other side without cutting itself off.
It’s a co-dependent relationship that has helped to keep to peace for decades. Pipeline politics has been especially helpful to the countries between Russia and Germany — and, in particular, Poland and Ukraine.
A briefing from the Bruegel institute includes a map showing how key pipeline routes cross Polish and Ukrainian territory. In the absence of alternative routes, Russia wouldn’t be able to invade either country without running the risk of losing vital energy export infrastructure. This is especially important for Ukraine, which lacks the protection of NATO membership.
However, Germany has undermined this strategic protection by cooperating with Russia to build the Nord Stream pipeline, which runs via the Baltic Sea thus bypassing Russia’s immediate neighbours. It was completed in 2011. More recently — and despite Russia’s growing aggression toward Ukraine, including the annexation of Crimea — a second pipeline (Nord Stream 2) has been built following the same route.
Germany has persisted in this policy despite dire warnings from the Poles and Ukrainians. America was also staunchly opposed — or at least it was until the Biden administration threw in the towel (a hallmark of its foreign policy).
It is therefore now possible for Russia to turn the whole of Ukraine into a war zone while keeping the gas flowing to the EU (and the EU’s money flowing back the other way). By the same token, Russia can more easily cut-off energy supplies to and via Ukraine.
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