December 23, 2024 - 8:00pm

Ex-Florida House Representative Matt Gaetz seemed to be tailor-made for the MAGA era, and could have had a stellar future as a potential successor to Donald Trump. That is, had he not been felled by revelations of his private escapades, the lurid details of which are about to be made public by the release of the House’s ethics report.

A leaked draft offers an unsettling preview of the extent of Gaetz’s wrongdoing, which includes allegedly engaging in “prostitution, statutory rape, illicit drug use, impermissible gifts, special favours or privileges [to the tune of $90,000 in suspected sex payments to women—including minors], and obstruction of Congress”.

Yet even accepting the premise that Gaetz is up to his neck in muck, there is still an element of tragedy in his downfall. That is because he displayed solidly populist instincts during his short congressional career and could have played a constructive — rather than a purely disruptive — role in charting the future of MAGA. Sadly, that possibility is now dead. There are at least two scenarios for the former congressman: permanent exile or eventual rehabilitation.

For now, Gaetz has a gig at OAN to look forward to, even as he will have to battle the legal and reputational consequences of the fallout. But even if he succeeds with his lawsuit to contain the damage, the fact is he has been purged from the institutions of power and now must consign himself to the realm of cable and podcasts, where outcasts such as Steve Bannon and Sarah Palin are put out to pasture.

But could Gaetz launch a comeback from his OAN perch? It’s possible. The Senate seat vacated by Marco Rubio may be out of the question, but there are two other possibilities: a play at the governor’s mansion when Ron DeSantis’s term is up in 2026 or another executive appointment from Trump once the heat from the present controversy dies down.

But in order for such a comeback to be successful and sustainable, he must not only have the backing of the president but also secure the loyalty of his MAGA base as well. The trouble is that the base’s devotion to Trump has not yet proven to be transferable to anyone else besides himself; so far, even his most MAGA-fied lieutenants — like Kari Lake in Arizona or even members of the Trump family — have failed to generate momentum independent of the President-elect.

In other words, to be viable in the long run, Gaetz will need a constituency and a political raison d’etre of his own. In tying his brand so closely to Trump’s, he has fallen short in cultivating these essential assets. Once the light from Trump’s star begins to fade, as it inevitably will one day, why should anyone care about what Gaetz had to say?

As Gaetz settles into a sinecure in the conservative media universe, he could end up somewhere between sharing the status of Bannon, a still active but mostly sidelined individual in MAGA world, and that of Madison Cawthorn, another once promising young gun-turned-ethically challenged outcast whose name is now nothing more than a footnote and a punchline. One thing is clear for now: Matt Gaetz’s Washington career is over.


Michael Cuenco is a writer on policy and politics. He is Associate Editor at American Affairs.
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