July 31, 2024 - 12:00pm
Just days before Venezuela’s presidential election, President Nicolás Maduro warned of a “bloodbath” if the people did not recognise his results. Minister of Defence Vladimir Padrino echoed the intimidation, saying that all those engaged in “electoral terrorism” would face “100 years in jail”. Meanwhile, all the polls gave Edmundo González, the opposition’s candidate, a significant advantage over Maduro. So should we be surprised by the outcome?
It was a fraught election from the start. The official leader of the democratic opposition, María Corina Machado, chose ex-diplomat González as her proxy because she has been banned from running for office since the start of the year. Despite Machado winning the hearts and minds of the overwhelming majority of Venezuelans, the National Electoral Council proclaimed Maduro the winner on Sunday, with 51.2% of the vote against 44.2% for the opposition candidate.
Since then, Machado’s team has recovered around 80% of the tallies, ostensibly giving González a victory with more than 70% of the vote. They have been digitised and made available to the public: all a Venezuelan has to do is type in their ID number and they can see their centre’s result.
A friend of mine was part of the team of people digitalising all this data, by hand, in a limited number of Epson scanners. It is cyber citizenship working to its limits — this is a global electoral monitoring system, an example of how to fight autocracies and defend the will of the people in the era of big data.
The picture looks different from Maduro’s side. There is now a signed order to arrest Machado, and the military and police forces have started to repress the spontaneous protests and opened fire on civilians. The regime had a choice, and it has taken the road of widespread and violent repression in the manner of Cuba and Nicaragua. It will try to build a fortress, turn off the lights, and asphyxiate its people. There are small glimpses of hope, with some policemen and women taking off their official uniform shirts and joining the protests in a remote town in the east of Venezuela: clearly, not all forces are willing to follow commands.
Machado was last seen on the morning of 30 June, greeting her supporters from the top of a truck, in full view and unprotected. A couple of blocks down from her meeting point in Caracas, an influential opposition figure was arrested. According to leaked information, he is being tortured so that he might “confess” to leading an alleged electoral coup, precisely the narrative the government has been trying to defend.
Meanwhile, social media has turned into a fecund soil of warnings and messages of support in favour of the spontaneous protests taking place in Venezuela, and of Machado’s efforts to challenge the fraudulent results.
Where is the US in all this? Joe Biden’s position on Venezuela has been ambivalent and changeable: negotiations in Barbados, followed by partial suspension of sanctions, and back to table talk. It’s hard, then, to predict what America will do next, though Antony Blinken has claimed that “it looks like” the official results don’t represent the will of the country’s people. In light of the massive turnout — the biggest in Venezuela’s democratic history — and the ongoing repression, the US Secretary of State seems to be speaking to Maduro wearing silk gloves.
Donald Trump spoke out against the present Venezuelan regime in 2019; will he do it again if he wins in November? If Maduro stays in power, the exodus of Venezuelans will not just persist but intensify. Trump seems to have a soft spot for the country and its people, but domestic pressures will be significant, and America’s own borders will no doubt come first.
One thing is clear: Sunday’s results are the mirror of the popular will, the same will that gathered and supported the democratic alternative these last couple of months. Active and passive resistance will continue. Venezuela has woken up.
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SubscribeDemocrats have always had soft spots and worse than soft spots for Communist regimes: They adore them. They are models for the regimes they want to impose here.
Any Biden intervention would be half-hearted. It would try to preserve Maduro because he is a hero to them. Anything short of removing him, which is the only solution, might be tried. Anything short of removing him would make matters worse.
Look no further than the Middle East to see the best of what Biden’s foreign policy can produce.
impartially and non-partison: We really cannot run articles asking whether “Joe Biden” or “Kamala Harris” will do this or that. What will the Democratic Machine do, is the question.
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if Trump, the question is valid; he is a man of strong opinions, willfulness, and unpredictable decision-making. For better and worse, he is NOT a man owned by a political machine.
It seems unlikely, given that he’s decided not to intervene even in the US election.
Intervene to do what exactly? The results of American intervention in the affairs of other nations has us on the brink of a serious war as it is, and it has been the foundation of angst the world over.
Also, the last person who needs to complain about anyone’s elections is Joe Biden. His party has corrupted its own primary process for the last three election cycles.
You are quite correct about the poor results of American interventionism. I do think that, at a minimum, Biden should reimpose the sanctions on Venezuelan oil that he lifted to offset the turmoil in oil markets when Russian oil was sanctioned. I say that not because I think sanctions are all that effective but because it would serve as both a symbolic gesture of support for the Venezuelan opposition and would clarify the growing impression that the American Democratic Party actually supports Maduro.
Let’s be honest. The only reason sleepy Joe is at all interested in the Venezuelan election is to learn how to do what they did!
I don’t see how anyone can think at this point that Biden can “intervene” in anything besides determining his nap time.
Looks like another South American tragedy but it is best resolved by the people of Venezuela without outside interference. The will of the people, whatever it is, will ultimately prevail.
I am hopeful that Maduro will meet his end in much the same way Gaddafi did.
I can’t believe that got a downvote!
I am pleased that the people are tearing down statues of Hugo Chavez, who started the rot that currently infects Venezuela.
I wonder if the USA´s reluctance to intervene has anything to do with Venezuela´s massive oil reserves. The incompetence of Maduro means the oil is being left in the ground, which benefits the USA as it doesn´t need the oil yet. But it may well do so in the future, so in effect, Venezuelan oil is part of the USA´s strategic reserve, and keeping Maduro in power keeps the oil intact.