August 26, 2024 - 12:00pm
Early yesterday morning, Hezbollah fired a barrage of rockets and mortars from Southern Lebanon towards Israeli military positions along the border between the two countries. The group cited the strikes as revenge for the Israel Defence Force’s assassination of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr last month.
Hezbollah claims it managed to fire 320 rockets and drones at Israel. The IDF asserts that the number is far lower, and responded almost immediately with artillery strikes targeting the launch sites in Lebanon and specific Hezbollah observation posts near the border.
It also used around 100 jets to carry out a series of pre-emptive airstrikes at 40 additional targets deeper inside Lebanese territory, destroying thousands of Hezbollah’s rocket launchers. This followed intelligence that the group was planning a huge attack against Israel.
Where Hezbollah and its Amal allies said three of their fighters had been killed, the IDF reportedly lost one soldier. It also appears that Hezbollah managed to kill some chickens, which has led to much online mirth about the assassination of “Zionist chickens”, replete with memes of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah decked out as KFC’s Colonel Sanders.
It recalls the now-famous “incident” of the “Zionist dolphin”. On 19 August 2015 Hamas’s al-Qassam Brigade claimed it had captured a dolphin wearing cameras and various bits of tech off the Gaza coast. “Israel did not just stop at the bloody attacks against the Gaza Strip,” thundered the Palestinian al-Quds daily newspaper. “Now it has recruited a watery pet, the dolphin, known for his friendship with humans, to use for operations to kill Qassam Brigade naval commandos.” The IDF declined to comment.
Hezbollah is a serious problem for Israel. Its military capabilities are far in excess of Hamas’s — it has an estimated arsenal of over 100,000 rockets and missiles, some with the capability to reach deep into Israeli territory. When I was last in Israel, I visited the country’s northern border, which remains largely deserted; thousands had been ordered to flee because of the rocket fire. This gives Hezbollah de facto control over who lives in that part of the country, which is clearly something no state can accept.
Israel views Hezbollah as arguably the greatest direct threat to its security. Political sources tell me that many in the IDF think now is the time to try to take the group out once and for all. After the attack, Hezbollah pointedly declared “an end” to the first phase of the retaliation for Shukr.
Right now, Israeli deterrence looks to have been restored. Hezbollah’s “revenge” was wrought mostly on chickens. Despite Iran’s many vows of retaliation for the assassination of Hamas chief Ismael Haniyeh in Tehran last month, any actions against Israel have yet to materialise.
But, as ever, the risk of a war that no one wants becoming unavoidable through miscalculation or brinkmanship or outright stupidity remains. Of course, any such war would not be confined to Israel and Hezbollah, inescapably dragging in the region and then inevitably the major world powers too. And that is something that must be avoided at all costs.
David Patrikarakos is UnHerd‘s foreign correspondent. His latest book is War in 140 characters: how social media is reshaping conflict in the 21st century. (Hachette)
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SubscribeWhy must it be “avoided at all costs”? Such a sentiment is precisely why the situation is now so delicately balanced. Had the West given Israel better support over the years Iran and its proxies would not now be so powerful. Instead of forcing the Israelis into half-baked truces and accords we should have stood up to the genocidal bigots surrounding the only true democracy in the region. When will we learn? When dealing with autocracies and theocracies appeasement has never worked and never will.
Using your logic we should also go to war against Russia, China , North Korea and every other autocracy. Haven’t you learned anything from the Vietnam War, Iraq and Afghanistan? The west also has autocrats as allies, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, and Egypt as examples. The middle east is a complicated mess, unless the west wants to commit genocide and kill everyone in the area, there is no easy solution, Israel also has it’s own fanatical internal politics which is making the situation worse. Wars are easy to start, very difficult to end, and no one knows what the outcome will be. The Taliban back in power was not foreseen just a few years ago.
There’s a huge difference between declaring war against all the brutal autocratic regimes & not supporting a democratic ally that is constantly attacked by several brutal autocratic regimes.
If Saudi Arabia or Egypt wanted to wipe the UK or US off the map & sent thousands of rockets, suicide bombers etc, year after year, would you still advocate doing nothing?
> Hezbollah is a serious problem for Israel. Its military capabilities are far in excess of Hamas’s — it has an estimated arsenal of over 100,000 rockets and missiles, some with the capability to reach deep into Israeli territory.
Seems to me that is pretty direct evidence to me that Hezbollah doesnt want a war. They have vastly more capabilities than they have deployed and they used them to kill some chickens and one soldier rather than an indiscriminate barrage into northern Israel that would be the case if they really wanted to cause hurt.
Hezbollah recognizes that they don’t want to fight Israel and that they’ll get stomped. They have to do something to keep some semblance of still being aligned with their mission but they are doing as little as possible to prevent real problems.
Israel knows this and won’t be in a rush to pick another fight as I’d assume their military personnel are at least competent enough to recognize a 2 front war is a bad idea.
Hezbollah has been somewhat restrained, by comparison to Hamas and IJ, which indicates that targeted assassinations are a good deterrent.
But the most recent fight picked was picked last October.