The stakes are particularly high in the energy and fuel trade, given Russia’s superpower status in raw materials, and cutting off Moscow has never been as simple as politicians would have us believe. NGO Global Witness found that in 2023, the EU imported 130 million barrels of “laundered” products worth a total €1.1 billion from refineries processing Russian crude. The EU is currently paying hand over fist for Russian gas following the invasion of Kursk, which endangers pipeline gas flows to Central Europe via Ukraine.

In this context, investors who care more about the bottom line than making a moral statement may be questioning the zeal of companies which exited Russia. The boss of Swiss-based oil and gas firm ABB, which has already exited the country, has lamented the “competitive advantage” enjoyed by those who stayed.

This is a conundrum for Washington, given concerted efforts by the US to become Europe’s new fix for fossil fuels (the US now provides around half of the EU’s LNG supplies, up from a quarter before the war). The US Department of State admits that while it is “committed to reducing Putin’s profits,” when it comes to the work of companies such as SLB, “simply aiming to stop the flow of Russian oil would have serious consequences for the global economy.”

Putin himself will be grateful for every western company that remains. While appearing to provide an oil slick of legitimacy for his aggressive foreign policy, their presence is also powerful international leverage. Russia has seized the assets of companies trying to leave and imposed a mandatory 50% discount on assets from “unfriendly” countries sold to Russian buyers, along with a hefty “exit tax.” Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that the “significant amounts of western funds and property under Russian jurisdiction” may be “subject to Russian retaliatory policies and retaliatory actions.”

Businesses still in Russia may not be troubled by matters of morality or geopolitical strategy. Instead, they’re making a high-stakes bet that these additional risks of working in Russia will enable greater rewards. Reputational damage, and the threat that their assets could fall prey to political machinations in the Kremlin, aren’t sufficient concerns to outweigh their new competitive edge.