Border encounters have decreased considerably this summer from the historic highs of recent years, following a push from the Biden administration to restrict asylum. Joe Biden campaigned on dismantling Donald Trump’s immigration restrictions, and the change in his tone on the issue has coincided with a pivot throughout the Democratic Party toward more restrictive immigration policy, in part because of Abbott’s busing programme.

Migrant-busing exploited an imbalance in American immigration politics. Illegal border crossings have the most immediate and noticeable impact on small, low-income border towns. Places such as Del Rio, Texas, see an influx of migrants equal to 14 times their entire population size on an annual basis. Meanwhile, large and wealthy urban areas far from the border advertise themselves as sanctuary cities despite receiving proportionally few migrants. Upon receiving a sudden influx of migrants, these cities’ Democratic mayors and their Left-leaning constituents quickly changed their tune.

New York Mayor Eric Adams said in late 2023 that illegal immigration would “destroy New York City”, a statement with which 58% of New Yorkers, including 46% of Democrats, agreed in a subsequent poll. Locals told the New York Times that the illegal immigrant surge was “unacceptable” and “a disgrace”. The Democratic mayors of Chicago and Denver joined Adams in calling for Biden to declare a federal emergency over the migrant crisis late last year.

Abbott was not the only elected official sending migrants into the nation’s blue cities. The Democratic mayor of El Paso, Texas, bused more than 13,000 migrants to New York, Los Angeles and Denver in just three months in late 2023. Republican Florida Governor Ron DeSantis received an outpouring of criticism from across the country in 2022 after sending 48 Venezuelan immigrants to Martha’s Vineyard, a wealthy liberal enclave and self-styled “sanctuary destination”.

As immigration grew increasingly visible in major cities, it became a leading national news story. Public opinion changed across the board, such that 51% of Americans, including 42% of Democrats, now support mass deportations. The proportion of Americans who think immigration should decrease rather than increase has risen from 28% in May 2020 to 55% in June 2024, according to Gallup.

Under pressure from other elected Democrats and the party’s base, the Biden administration has changed its tone on the border over the past year and has implemented a number of reforms aimed at curbing illegal crossings, including a ban on migrants applying for asylum after crossing the border illegally when crossings are particularly high. Kamala Harris has been campaigning as a border hawk, with one of her first ads touting her prosecutorial record against gang members and drug cartels. This shift on immigration from the Democrats suggests Abbott’s pledge to bring the border crisis to Biden was, in all, a success.

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is UnHerd’s US correspondent.

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