Today Volodymyr Zelensky is in Washington, negotiating for his country’s very future. Most of Europe’s leaders are with him, whether in person or in spirit. As well they might be, because it’s not just Ukraine’s sovereignty that’s on the line.
At this stage, having fought so valiantly for their nation, the Ukrainian people can be betrayed but never shamed. Not so the rest of free Europe — the European Union in particular — which stands on the brink of humiliation. The entire credibility of the European position now depends on whether its leaders maintain their support for Zelensky.
On the face of it, there’s nothing unreasonable in the united European front. Ursula von der Leyen has already set out the EU’s position, which demands a “just and lasting peace” that respects “international law, sovereignty and territorial integrity”. One might also mention the Ukrainian constitution, which forbids the surrender of any part of the country’s land.
Of course, that has to be reconciled with Russia’s control of approximately one-fifth of Ukraine, as well as the Trump administration’s determination to achieve peace. As US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said yesterday, “the goal is not to win the war — it’s to end it.”
Putin is pushing for Ukraine to give up control of whole swathes of unconquered land in the Donbas region in return for a few fragments of Russian-held land elsewhere in Ukraine. Last week, in and around the Alaska meeting, this was spun by the Americans as “land swapping”. In reality, this would be like giving a burglar your TV, laptop and car in return for a few broken ornaments, with the police calling it a “property swap”. Zelensky has firmly rejected any such deal.
Clearly, the Europeans must maintain a united front against such unfair land swaps. And the group headed to Washington has managed this at previous pressure points: after Zelensky’s ambush in the Oval Office in February, Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz, Keir Starmer and others released firm statements supporting the Ukrainian leader. Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, whose response then was the least forceful, seemed most reluctant to participate in the “Coalition of the Willing”. But she has grown firmer in her stance, and signed up to the joint statement published on Saturday in response to the Alaska summit.
That, however, is just the start of the challenge. Much harder will be maintaining a joint position with the Americans without betraying Ukraine. Trump has far less at stake here than his European counterparts. While his enemies have tried to attach the acronym TACO — “Trump Always Chickens Out” — to his trade negotiations, it doesn’t work as well in respect to Ukraine. He has made a big thing about ending the war, but he’s also signalled his willingness to walk away if one or both sides won’t stop fighting.
The nightmare scenario facing the Europeans is that Putin laughs in their faces while Trump looks the other way. In which case, what do they do about it? Back in March, Lithuanian defence minister Dovilė Šakalienė warned that the only way to negotiate with Russia was “with a gun on the table”. Her advice was directed at the Americans, but where is Europe’s gun?
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