The more that Israel wins on the battlefield, the more it seems to be losing the larger war. On top of news that France, Britain and Canada are all planning to recognise Palestine as an independent state, US President Donald Trump has also warned the Israelis with a very public leak that his MAGA base is turning against Israel. This is in addition to Trump disputing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s assertion that there is no starvation in Gaza.

Doubtless Trump’s warning about MAGA restiveness over Israel was strategically leaked as leverage, so that Trump can gain the upper hand in any negotiations with Netanyahu. Yet it is nonetheless worth reflecting on the fact that Trump has been willing to openly criticise and consistently outflank Israel in ways that went far beyond the efforts of his predecessors, especially when compared to Joe Biden.

Consider this. Trump pointedly negotiated directly with Hamas for the release of an American hostage, conducted nuclear talks with Iran and lifted sanctions on Syria without giving advance notice to the Israelis and in opposition to Israel’s request to keep sanctions on the new Syrian regime. The US President further conducted his 2024 air campaign against Yemen’s Houthi rebels without bothering to coordinate with the Israelis and then signed a separate ceasefire with them earlier this year. Most striking of all, Trump refused to lift tariffs on Israel and expressed reluctance about the extent of existing US financial support.

The fact that Donald Trump has put more pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu than Democratic presidents Joe Biden and Barack Obama reveals something uncomfortable. It exposes the self-defeating nature of many liberal and Left-wing attempts to rein in Israel — efforts that rely heavily on international law, sanctions, criminal indictments of Israeli leaders, and a constant stream of public condemnation and protest. Yet for all their moral intensity, these strategies have achieved far less than expected.

Needless to say, Trump has certainly not abandoned Netanyahu — his administration seems to have permitted Israel to renew its bombing of Lebanon despite a supposed ceasefire, and Trump supported breaking off negotiations with Hamas. Yet this apparent lenience with Israel reflects less the strength of his support for the Jewish state as much as it reflects his ultimate indifference. According to Amos Hochstein, a former senior adviser to the Biden administration, the real test of a pro-Israeli American president is whether or not they are willing to intervene to save Israel from itself — in this case by restraining the rampant militarism of Netanyahu. On this metric, Trump certainly fails.

Whatever happens next, one thing is certain, Trump 2.0 marks a decisive break with decades of US-Israeli alignment. The pro-Palestinian protestors who overran the campuses and quads of Ivy League universities across the 12 months doubtless oppose the Trump administration as much as the policies of the Biden administration. But when they enter the ranks of the US political elite and diplomatic corps of the future and have their chance to wreak their revenge on Israel, they will only be following the path laid by Trump back in their student days.

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Philip Cunliffe is Associate Professor of International Relations at the Department of Risk and Disaster Reduction, University College London. He is the author of seven books, including, most recently: The National Interest: Politics after Globalization.

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