July 23, 2024 - 3:30pm
Germany’s leadership is panicking. Not because of the potential collapse of the front line in Ukraine, nor because of the looming deindustrialisation of the German economy. No, the country’s leaders are panicking because of the potential election of Donald Trump as US president this November. Yet while initial fears of a Trump presidency were overblown, the German elite may be reading a second term for the GOP candidate correctly.
Trump has made no secret that he hopes to end the Ukraine war, and even possibly pull American military support from Europe. He hinted at this before during his first run for president. But in 2016 this was not a widely-held position in Washington and, most importantly, no major war has been lost in Europe. Today, Ukraine’s military is seriously struggling and Kyiv is even putting out peace-feelers, while a large element of the DC bureaucracy is becoming aware that the United States is overstretched.
The problem for Germany is that, under the leadership of Olaf Scholz, it has invested almost everything in this war. The national economy, which used to be the pride and joy of the German people, is deindustrialising due to the sanctions and counter-sanctions that are a direct consequence of the conflict. A Trump administration is also promising tariffs that could produce a drag effect of anywhere between 0.5% and 1.5% of Germany’s annual GDP growth.
Germany’s economic humiliation over the past two years has been brutal. During the eurozone debt crisis, Germany was able to portray itself as the adult in the room, on hand to help supervise the economic management of supposedly profligate countries such as Italy, Portugal, and Spain. But now these countries are growing much more rapidly than Germany.
Why did Germany stake everything on the war in Ukraine? After all, it was obvious to all but the most stubborn political observers that Ukraine might lose and the mood might change in Washington. The only explanation is that Germany suffers from an acute crisis of leadership in its politics and a major crisis of competence within its state and civil service. The people who portray themselves as the adults in the room are not fit for prime-time.
Before cutting aid to Ukraine last week, Berlin had followed in Washington’s trail, outsourcing its leadership to the United States. Germans observing this trend might have assumed that America was a politically stable country. But with the recent assassination attempt on Trump and the collapse of Joe Biden’s candidacy, Germans are no doubt starting to wonder if they were sold a false bill of goods.
Against a backdrop of record-low approval ratings for the Chancellor and his government, worries are mounting about Ukraine losing the war (or at least a diplomatic resolution emboldening Vladimir Putin), poor economic growth, and a fatal reliance on Russian energy imports. At the same time, its increasingly bellicose stance towards Beijing — also a product of the government outsourcing its decision-making to DC — was on display after a recent Nato forum when the country moved to exclude China from its 5G network. If Trump is elected in November, the one relationship on which Germany bet all its political capital will likely sour.
Germany has been through difficult spells before. In the Twenties, an infamously incompetent post-war political class almost destroyed the country, thereby paving the way for the rise of the National Socialists and the darkest period in the country’s history. A century on, the 2020s are unlikely to be as bad as the Weimar period. But there is little doubt that the current German leadership class will be remembered as the least competent since the Second World War, and will be blamed for the dark days that are still to come.
Philip Pilkington is a macroeconomist and investment professional, and the author of The Reformation in Economics
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SubscribeI agree with the author that Germany, as well as most western democracies, are being run by an incompetent political class. Hence the rise of populism across the west. But I have no idea what he means when he says losing the war. Ending the war is in the best interests of everyone, including Ukraine. Germany’s deindustrialization has been caused by more than a decade of policies that have made its energy production amongst the most expensive in the world, as well as the most reliant on foreign imports.
Those who think that Russia’s appetite will be limited to Ukraine are incredibly stupid.
Ahead of them awaits not only Russia with its constant imperial appetites, but also vigorous Islamists and fighters for all that is good, who are freshly baked in their own universities. It’s a domino effect.
Weak are despised.
Is that the same Russia which is making very slow progress in taking all of the Ukrainian territory it apparently wants?
Or a much more powerful Russia hiding somewhere out of sight?
It is the same decrepit almost-third-world Russia that is struggling to beat Ukraine. However, it retains two things: 1) Its memories of Soviet grandeur, and 2) Its Nukes (some of which probably still work).
Putin is not a problem. West is a problem.
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Surprisingly, it turned out that Russia produces many times more shells than the United States and the EU, and for the F-16, the flight from Europe to Ukraine takes more then 2 years.
Well, the US and the EU are going to need to ramp up their military production then. They’re going to need it for the inevitable war with Russia.
Honestly dude, do you work for Rafeon? Your war hawkishness is absurd. What bothers me is that war hawks are never ion the front line. Either are their children.
Indeed
The problem is that neither Putin, nor Xi, nor Iran are impressed by your peaceful intentions.
As I have said here before, outside your bubble the weak are despised
I am far less concerned about China and Iran than I am about Russia.
There’s difference between projecting strength and marching other people into the latest war to save the west. A peace could have been negotiated, and should have been negotiated, many months ago.
A peace was negotiated in 1938. How did that work out?
Right through my entire life, Russia has been the Evil Empire (a neat term coined by Ronald Reagan), with the possible exception of when Gorbachev was in power. I am well versed in history, and see the parallels with 1938. There were a lot of cowards and appeasers then too. We shouldn’t make the same mistake they did, because there is little to distinguish the German dictator of those days from the Russian dictator of the present.
Putin is frickin 78 years old. Name another 78 year old dictator who decided to take over the world? Iran is a much much bigger threat than Putin by the way.
Putin is in fact 71 years old. By a strange quirk, he is almost exactly 10 years older than I am, so remembering his age is easy enough for me. Iran will make all sorts of trouble in all sorts of places, but is unlikely to actually invade another country.
If you ramp up military production you certainly will get the war you seem to long for. As a German I have no interest in having Europe destroyed once more.If it was my country that brought destruction over the world in the 20st c. that is bad enough. But I am passionate about stopping this silly proxy war that serves nobody but American interests.
Well, in view of your attitude, you would probably be wise to start learning Russian. My mother was German. She was born in a town that was in those days called Tilsit, in East Prussia. It is now called Sovetsk, in the Kaliningrad Oblast of Russia. I don’t know what town you live in, but you might give some thought to what it will be called when the Russians invade and occupy it.
Putin can’t seem to beat Ukraine. Poland would probably kick his butt. This is delusional.
Well, I acknowledge that he would need some time to build up his military after the Ukraine War before he does so, but if peace is made, he will get that time. I advocate not giving that to him.
Do you know why the US and EU combined produce several times fewer artillery shells than Russia?
Can you provide evidence for you bold suppositions?
They should have listened seriously to Trump the first time round instead of smirking away in the audience.
Germany’s de-industrialization has very little to do with the Ukraine War and everything to do with insane net zero policies.
It’s both. The net zero obsession and the support of the Ukraine war are the product of the same inept political brains that now rule the country.
It’s not just the Germans who should be scared of a Trump victory. Who is going to invest in Britain while UK energy policy is in the hands of Ed Milliband and there’s a cheap energy, high growth, AI-driven economy across the Atlantic? Not me, that’s for sure.
From what I understand, UK energy prices are twice as high as the U.S. and five times as high as China. Not a winning formula.
We could have fracked, but endless protests by privileged Greens made it unviable. We could have expanded nuclear energy, but our short-termist political class couldn’t see beyond the next parliament. Our leaders are even more incompetent than yours.
We have relative civility in political debate, and that’s something, but it’s not enough to compensate for general failure at the highest level.
Europe has been mollycoddled by the USA for a very long time. Those picking up the bill, ie the US taxpayers are getting tired of funding nursey to look after the children who won’t do it themselves whilst they also criticise nursey for not being like nice Europeans.
Well the times they are achangin’ and European leaders are going to have to grow up very fast and try to get an economy that benefits their people and provides their own defence, instead of endless regulations and squabbles achieving little but higher costs. Personally I doubt European leaders can do it.
No matter who is President in the short to medium term the USA will become isolationist and look after itself. It is perfectly capable of doing so and did so in the past. It will prosper by doing it.
As a Briton, I can’t disagree with you.
I agree with that, but the one thing Europe should never do is trust Russia. Russia is “the enemy” now, and it will be “the enemy” in 50 years time, and probably 100 years time. Europe needs to rearm with that in mind, and never trade with Russia.
I love the way any “anti-Russian” comment gets a couple of downvotes almost straight away. What’s that about?
Make it three for a silly question
Fair comment. I guessed it was Putin stooges.
Germany’s troubles in the 1920s were mainly due to the punitive Treaty of Versailles pushed by President Wilson. But then there was the US stock market crash in 1929. That wasn’t too much fun for the Germans either.
Anyway, I’d say that the Thirty Years War was much worse for the Germans, when up to 30 percent of Germans died.
You’re wrong, Woodrow Wilson did not push the treaty of Versailles and wanted the exact opposite, it was Britain and France who did it. He wanted to avoid humiliating Germany and punishing them harshly with reparations and land losses. America concluded a separate piece with Germany in 1921 as a result of it not being ratified by the Senate. Woodrow only signed because he thought it would help create the League of Nations despite his personal dislike for the treaty itself.
The Thirty Years War still has resonances in the German psyche.
Germany really should star recalling the days of Bismarck, Moltke, and the Franco Prussian War.
Germany going down hill for all sorts of reasons. Mainly climate alarmism but also low fertility. All countries stagnste as working population ages. Dont think trump has much to do with it. What i would love though is an anslysis of what this means for the euro . With germany stagnating and france looking marxist , netherlands practicslly a narco state. Why hasnt the euro already fallen below doller ? Whats keeping it steady ? Genuine question
Philip never says anything nice about the West and always says the best things about its enemies, Ukraine has nothing to do with Germany’s economic troubles and all to do with it ridiculous environmental policies as well as competition from the east as well as demographic issues. I wonder what his political leanings are, is he some naive libertarian who thinks that basically trading with everybody will make the world a better place and more peaceful despite outstanding issues between world Powers, or some reactionary who despises his own society and wants it to be knocked down in a few pegs out disgust for for failing to meat his exacting retrograde standards. Or is he like Thomas Fazi, who won’t accept that the Marxist paradise isn’t going to happen and wants the the West of pay for defeating the cause, and cheers countries like Russia and China as some kind of revenge as a result of that and hoping that the cause can be restarted again as a result, despite the two countries in any way not representing the values he supposedly holds, tankiism 101. The two previously stated people above Make dishonest arguments often using facts and figures to make them look believable but they misrepresent what they say, and they often do it in defense of the worst types of people or governments. I don’t know why unheard has these people on this site, is it just they presente opposite point of view or they generate clicks as a kind of trolling by being inflammatory and contrarian.
It’s called Unherd not Uniparty consensus
“No, the country’s leaders are panicking because of the potential election of Donald Trump as US president this November“. It is not just the Germans who are panicking about that!