France yesterday pledged to formally recognise the state of Palestine, and everything indicates that the UK is about to follow suit.

Footage of starving Gazans — reminiscent of the Bosnian War, the Ethiopian Famine and earlier 20th-century horrors — has seemingly had a greater impact within the British media than previous images of bodies pulled from rubble or tiny white-shrouded corpses. There is also growing pressure on Keir Starmer from within the Labour Party. Prominent politicians such as London Mayor Sadiq Khan and Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham have called for recognition of Palestine, while Health Secretary Wes Streeting is believed to be doing so privately. The multiparty Foreign Affairs Committee has today published a report urging the UK to immediately recognise a Palestinian state “while there is still a state to recognise”.

The Labour government’s position is clearly shifting. Last night, Science and Technology Secretary Peter Kyle told the BBC’s Newsnight that the course of the war and Israel’s “intolerable” actions in Gaza have “hastened the discussion about [Palestinian] statehood”. Starmer himself said yesterday that Palestine had an “inalienable right” to statehood.

Of course, such a move would jar with the position of the United States, which has been quick to condemn the French decision. Yet it is not the kind of thing that risks the ire of Donald Trump, and would not unduly jeopardise the relationship that Starmer has so assiduously courted with the US President.

In contrast to the likes of Secretary of State Marco Rubio and US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, Trump does not have a long-established strategic, political or personal objection to a Palestinian state: his only concern in foreign policy, as with much else, is whether something will make him look good. British recognition of Palestine, which will have zero implications on the ground, will not make Trump look foolish, and so Starmer should not be unduly concerned about the US reaction.

Trump is in Scotland over the next few days, but with a busy agenda including talks over trade, Ukraine, and golf resorts, it is unlikely that any shift in the UK’s position on Palestine will sour relations between him and his hosts. He is due to meet with Scottish First Minister John Swinney, who is set to take a much more combative stance towards Trump’s position on Gaza, enabling Starmer to play “good cop” in comparison to the hectoring Scot.

Unfortunately, there is little the UK can do to change the situation in Gaza itself. The only force external to Israel capable of making any difference is the United States, and they will clearly not be recognising Palestine any time soon.

Still, it’s good politics for Starmer, especially given yesterday’s announcement of a new Left-wing party led by former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and expelled MP Zarah Sultana. Many senior Labour politicians, including Streeting and even Starmer himself, risk losing their seats at the next election due to challenges from the Left. While belated recognition of a Palestinian state will not by itself remove this threat, it is now a priority of the Government to prevent the further loss of Left-wing voters to the Greens and the new Corbyn-Sultana vehicle.

When he became Labour leader back in 2020, Starmer was understandably eager to combat antisemitism within the party and win back the trust of British Jews. However, this led to several missteps, most notably when the former human rights lawyer averred that Israel had the right to withhold energy and water from the Gaza Strip as part of its offensive against Hamas.

It has been obvious for a long time that the war in Gaza is continuing for political reasons, specifically to keep Benjamin Netanyahu in power. There is no reason for a British Labour government to continue to support this conflict. The need for a “two-state solution” has routinely been trotted out by Western politicians for decades, but this cannot happen without the recognition of a Palestinian state. Given the nearly two years of carnage in Gaza, it is now more urgent than ever.

---

David Swift is a historian and author. His next book, Scouse Republic, is available to pre-order now.

davidswift87

---