For the first time since 2015, Russian President Vladimir Putin seems set to travel to Alaska next week for a meeting about the war in Ukraine with his American counterpart President Donald Trump. Trump’s confirmation on Friday that the much-anticipated summit would, indeed, take place made it easy to forget about the 8 August deadline that Trump set for Putin to declare a ceasefire or face economic punishment.

That the day came and went with neither a ceasefire nor the promised consequences is not a surprise. But it provides an important reminder about the sources and extent of Trump’s leverage with Putin as he heads into the important meeting. More economic threats and new military ultimatums are not likely to score the US President any points during the meeting or affect Putin’s decision-making afterward. Instead, Trump’s most powerful point of leverage is his ability to walk away from negotiations entirely. Trump can achieve more and better protect US interests if he keeps this in mind as he prepares to face Putin.

If it ends up happening as planned, the meeting between Putin and Trump could serve as a breakthrough in the stalled diplomatic effort to end the war in Ukraine. The two sides have reportedly already floated possible deals that might facilitate a near term ceasefire. Depending on the version, these include some territorial concessions by Ukraine, commitments preventing Ukraine from joining Nato, provisions for arming Ukraine’s future military, and promises by Russia not to use force in the future. For his part, Zelensky has already objected to these proposals and indicated that Ukraine will not give up territory. In any case, next week’s outcomes are more likely to be incremental progress than any sort of grand bargain.

Trump seems to believe that he’s entering negotiations with Putin from a position of strength. The narrative coming out of the White House is that the summit is the result of the tougher posture Trump has assumed toward Putin of late, including economic threats and the new plan to allow Europe to buy US weapons to send to Ukraine. In this telling, Trump’s pressure has softened Putin’s stance and made him more ready to talk.

There’s little evidence for this version of events. For weeks, Putin seemed unmoved by Trump’s tough rhetoric, new deadlines, and warnings of consequences to come. Rather than backing down, Russia has escalated its air attacks on Ukraine’s cities and its military campaign in eastern Ukraine. What’s more, for Putin, an official meeting with Trump on US territory is a win and long-sought-after objective, not a compromise.

In recent weeks, Trump himself seemed to doubt that economic coercion would change Putin’s calculus or lead to the desired ceasefire. That he ultimately decided not to impose any real consequences on Moscow as the 8 August deadline expired is perhaps the clearest admission by Washington that its economic and military leverage to end the war is limited.

Trump still has cards to play, however. Putin’s eagerness to meet one-on-one with the American president suggests the true source of Trump’s leverage when it comes to getting Moscow to make concessions: his exit option. Although an end to the fighting is a desirable goal, with few US interests at stake in the war in Ukraine, President Trump can afford to walk away entirely with no real risk to US national security.

For Putin, however, the situation is different. Continued US diplomatic engagement is necessary for him to achieve his war aims. Changes to the European security architecture and guarantees that Ukraine will not be part of Nato, for example, are things that require US participation and support. Putin also benefits from the status-boost that comes from direct engagement with Trump, which affirms his self-image as the leader of one of the world’s great powers.

Unlike economic ultimatums or artificial deadlines, threatening to walk away preserves Trump’s flexibility, avoids boxing him in, and safeguards US interests. To make the tactic credible, however, he must be prepared to follow through.

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Jennifer Kavanagh is a senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities.

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