Republicans can’t ignore the mounting cost crisis in the US. New data shows wholesale prices and everyday bills are surging: the producer price index jumped 0.9% in July, marking its largest monthly increase since 2022. Wholesale vegetable prices spiked nearly 40% that month — a dramatic move even for a typically volatile category. Meanwhile, electricity costs have risen about 5.5% over the past year, adding to household strain.

Democrats have signalled that they would like to bludgeon Republicans with these price increases, though there might be more than a little hypocrisy in doing so. For instance, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration, the states with the highest energy costs per kilowatt-hour in 2024 were all governed by Democrats: Hawaii, California, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut. Indeed, at over 30 cents per kilowatt hour, California’s electricity costs were twice as much as that of neighbouring Nevada.

The choices of progressive policymakers in various states — such as blocking new nuclear power plants and decommissioning coal-fired plants — have helped limit the supply of energy and driven up costs. It’s hard to blame Donald Trump for that. That said, Republicans have both electoral and policy-related reasons to tackle rising prices. Midterm elections are often referenda on the incumbent party, so voters could punish Republicans at the ballot box if they are dissatisfied with prices. As polling analyst Harry Enten recently observed on CNN, Republicans have lost the advantage they once had over Democrats on inflation, which could pose an electoral challenge.

Beyond defections from Republican voters, perhaps a far greater midterm threat for the GOP would be the voters who don’t even show up. The current Republican coalition relies on high levels of turnout from disengaged voters. That alienated electorate swarmed to the polls to deliver the presidency to Trump and Congress to Republicans in 2024. Those frustrated voters could stay home in 2026 if they feel as though Republicans have not delivered on affordability issues.

More broadly, rising costs pose a serious policy challenge for centre-right populism. Higher energy and raw material prices directly undermine efforts to revive American manufacturing, while making new housing more expensive and discouraging family formation. Meanwhile, the expansion of artificial intelligence — a key focus for both this administration and the tech-oriented Right — will only increase pressure on the electric grid.

Republicans still have a political opening to address affordability. Inflation remains significantly below the peaks of the Biden years, and, while it is underwater, the President’s approval rating on the economy remains well above his predecessor’s.

Still, the clock is ticking. A key political and policy tripwire will be topline inflation numbers. A sustained increase would cause inflation to dominate the headlines, and Democrats would likely blame the very policy ambitions of the White House — from the Big Beautiful Bill to the global rebalancing of trade — for this inflation. Populist voices on the Left have already begun attacking the administration over inflation and argue that the Trump White House has grown too friendly with corporate interests. A spike in inflation could become a messaging weapon for the anti-corporate, anti-MAGA Left.

The realigned GOP has continually outmanoeuvred progressives on many cultural issues so far this year, but it cannot afford to be boxed out on kitchen-table finances. Rising costs aren’t just an economic burden — they are a political fault line. If Republicans fail to present a coherent, credible plan for affordability, they risk alienating both their base and the swing voters who decide elections. Failure to address it would leave voters questioning whether Republicans can manage the economy as effectively as they promised.

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Fred Bauer is a writer from New England.

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