Any hopes of a ceasefire in Gaza appear to be at an end, with even greater destruction set to be wrought upon its long-suffering population. An Israeli government source this week said: “We’re going to occupy the Strip. The decision has been made. Hamas won’t release more hostages without total surrender, and we won’t surrender. If we don’t act now, the hostages will starve to death and Gaza will remain under Hamas’ control.”

Given the collapse of negotiations over the past 22 months, a final ceasefire was always a long shot — unless Donald Trump chose to exert leverage he has so far been unwilling or unable to use.

That’s particularly true because the domestic and international pressure on Netanyahu pales in comparison to the power held by his far-Right coalition partners. A permanent ceasefire would likely collapse his government; continued war, at current Israeli casualty levels, allows him to cling to power.

The announcement of the renewed offensive came on the same day that Netanyahu’s government voted unanimously to fire Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara, whom Bibi and his allies accuse of leading a politically-motivated prosecution of the Prime Minister.

Although the dismissal was instantly blocked by a Supreme Court injunction, it signals an increased aggressiveness from Netanyahu: over the past two years he has survived the resignation or dismissal of senior figures such as former defence secretary Yoav Gallant and ultra-Orthodox leader Yitzhak Goldknopf; he has removed the head of the Shin Bet intelligence agency, Ronen Bar; and now he has made his long-anticipated move against the Attorney General.

As rivals and former allies alike have been purged from the government, Bibi has grown ever more reliant on the far-Right, who in turn have become more confident and assertive. Over the weekend, Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir led a prayer meeting on the Temple Mount/Al-Aqsa compound, where longstanding agreements prevent Jews from praying, eliciting fierce rebukes from Saudi Arabia and Jordan, and prompting Netanyahu to issue a reassurance that this would not mark a change to the established practices.

Bibi’s latest move, to abandon negotiations and launch a renewed offensive, will provoke some outrage in Israel, but it will not be enough to end the war or remove him from power. It is no coincidence that it comes after the release of footage of emaciated hostages Evyatar David and Rom Braslavski, which has deeply affected the Israeli public. The images have likely bolstered support for a final offensive — either as a last-ditch effort to rescue the remaining hostages or to fully occupy and “neutralise” the Strip.

It is possible that this latest campaign could succeed where the previous violence has failed: secure the release of the surviving hostages, destroy Hamas, and finally end the war in Gaza. But given what we have witnessed over the past 22 months, this is highly unlikely — not least because it is impossible to say what the “destruction of Hamas” would look like, and how that success would have been achieved.

It is more likely that Israel will end up in the very position it hoped to avoid when it first invaded Gaza. It could become a permanent occupying force, locked in a never-ending insurgency. Its international reputation would be in tatters, and any hopes of further normalisation with other powers in the region could vanish for good.

In this scenario, even Netanyahu would be hard-pressed to declare a victory. And though the war might drag on further, he can only hide from the electorate for so long, with the next Israeli election scheduled for October 2026.

If the decision has been made to occupy the Strip, then Bibi has made a fatal decision that will ultimately prove a failure for him, and a moment of triumph for the far-Right.

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David Swift is a historian and author. His latest book, Scouse Republic, is out now.

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