Reform UK has had a poor week. First of all, there was the party’s chaotic policy announcement on immigration. The substantive point — that we should not hand out lifelong welfare entitlements to recent immigrants — was lost in a welter of clarifications. Instead of putting Labour ministers on the spot, Nigel Farage and others had to explain that, no, the policy didn’t mean long-term residents would be deported and also that it wouldn’t apply to refugees from Hong Kong and Ukraine, not to mention EU citizens with settled status. Reform’s claim that the policy will save £234 billion is also heavily disputed.

Of course, the mainstream media is always going to be unsympathetic — but that should be a spur to discipline. There is, for instance, no excuse for the mess that Farage found himself in when he claimed this week that migrants were eating the swans from Royal Parks. It isn’t just the lack of evidence that’s embarrassing, but the obvious parallel to Donald Trump — whose own “they’re eating the dogs, they’re eating the cats” rhetoric was roundly mocked.

Incredibly, this wasn’t the only time this week that Farage got tangled up in orange. He also blundered when asked about Trump’s position that taking Tylenol (paracetamol) during pregnancy leads to “a very increased” risk of autism in children. Farage should have said something along the lines of “I’m not convinced — and I promise you that a Reform government will be guided by British scientific advice.” But all he could say was that he had “no idea”. Just weeks before, Dr Aseem Malhotra told the party’s conference in Birmingham that the Covid-19 vaccination was a “significant factor” in the cancer diagnoses of King Charles and the Princess of Wales.

This can’t go on. Farage and his colleagues must realise that the current moment in British politics is bigger than all of them. Right now, Reform UK is the chosen instrument of the country’s anger, but voters will quickly become impatient with complacency and crankish statements.

Don’t forget that Reform UK only rose to its current position because Boris Johnson, who caught the public mood when he first became prime minister, betrayed his 2019 mandate. It didn’t take long for voters to turn away in disgust. From 43% of the vote and 365 seats, the Conservatives crashed to 24% and 121 seats in 2024.

Reform is not in government, so surely the party couldn’t suffer such a downfall? The fate of populists around the world begs to differ. Canadian Tory leader and gutsy populist Pierre Poilievre was heading for certain victory up until late last year. But then Trump returned as US president and made threats against Canada’s sovereignty. The result was a spectacular shift in the Canadian polls and victory for incumbent Liberals headed by central banker Mark Carney in April’s federal election. It wasn’t really Poilievre’s fault, but it is a warning to Farage that MAGA is not an exportable product, and voters’ anger with the establishment doesn’t mean they’ll vote for any outsider.

Meanwhile, European politics provides ample evidence that while populism isn’t going away, there are no guarantees of success. In the Netherlands, the Geert Wilders’s coalition government has fallen apart. In Germany, the AfD is currently riding high, but thanks to infighting and extremism has previously suffered serious slumps in support. In France, Éric Zemmour enjoyed a surge of voter interest in the early stages of the 2022 presidential election only to see it evaporate just as fast. In Italy, the Right-wing bruiser and current Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini led his Lega party to a commanding first place in the polls, but then made multiple wrong moves. He’s since been outshone by the more moderate Giorgia Meloni, who combines populism with competence and hence actual popularity.

Back in Britain, there are still early signs of trouble for Reform. While new polling from YouGov has the party on the brink of an outright majority at the next election, another survey for More in Common shows that swapping Prime Minister Keir Starmer for Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham could put Labour back in first place.

In short, Farage needs to get a grip of himself and his party. So far, he’s surfed the populist wave with success. But it could just as easily drown him.

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Peter Franklin is Associate Editor of UnHerd. He was previously a policy advisor and speechwriter on environmental and social issues.

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