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May 22, 2024 - 1:00pm
After the EU’s liberal parties descended into civil war this week, it’s now the turn of Identity and Democracy (ID), the alliance of Right-wing parties in the European Parliament. Jordan Bardella — President of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) — has said that his party will no longer sit with the Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Tensions have been growing for months. At the start of the year, it emerged that high-ranking members of the AfD had attended a meeting at which plans for “remigration” of legally resident migrants were discussed. The RN leadership sought urgent clarification from the German party, which subsequently distanced itself from the remigration policy.
But relations worsened again after a staffer working for Maximilian Krah — the AfD’s lead candidate in the European Parliament — was arrested on suspicion of spying for Beijing. Krah’s subsequent attack on the West’s “complete paranoia” over China didn’t help. Then, over the weekend, Krah said in an interview with the Italian newspaper La Repubblica that members of the SS “were not all criminals”. For the RN, it was the last straw.
The French party’s basic strategy is about “normalisation”, presenting a face to the electorate that isn’t just moderate but — just as importantly — professional. And it’s working. Recent polling shows Le Pen ahead of all other likely candidates for the next presidential election in 2027. For the European elections in June, RN is in a commanding first place, with almost double the support of Emmanuel Macron’s allies.
Contrast that performance to the fortunes of the AfD. Last year, the German populists had surged into a nationwide second place and a dominant first place in the former East Germany. But, amid mounting scandals, they’ve been bleeding support, with some polls showing the AfD dropping back to third position behind the governing Social Democrats. That’s due in part to the loss of some AfD voters to Sahra Wagenknecht’s new party, but it’s also an indictment of the AfD itself.
For Le Pen, the link to the AfD at EU level is a liability, hence what appears to be a permanent break. The rupture opens the way for a possible realignment on the Right of European politics. The populists are currently split between two main groups: ID and the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR).
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