After the country’s election 72 days ago left three political blocs with no outright majority, France remains without a government. New Prime Minister Michel Barnier was appointed by Emmanuel Macron to act as a bridge to the far-Right bloc. Choosing a Left-winger for the role would have meant the repeal of the President’s economic programme, so he was left to make overtures to the Rassemblement National (RN).

Barnier’s appointment is acceptable to Le Pen because there is a mutual respect between the pair, and because he is an immigration hawk. As a result, outgoing Macronist ministers have warned that the current trajectory of the government risks handing Le Pen the keys to the Élysée in 2027. Meanwhile, at the weekend Le Pen herself briefed RN colleagues that Barnier will not last a year. It might seem counterintuitive for her to warn of the collapse of a government for which she is the crutch, but from her perspective it is perfectly logical.

With Barnier’s appointment, Le Pen gets to smooth her path to power: if her policies are beginning to be implemented ahead of the next election, it will come as less of a shock when she takes office. In agreeing to a confidence and supply arrangement with Macron, she is now one step closer to governing and is demonstrating to the bond markets that she does not cause chaos for its own sake. In other words, for her this is the last stage of “de-demonisation”.

This strategy comes at a price, however. The French Left now has a strong attack line in the concept of Macro-Lepenisme, and can say that Le Pen saved Macron in his government’s dying moment. La France Insoumise (LFI) can point to this ramshackle coalition of centre-right and far-Right held together by the presence of the Eurocrat par excellence and argue: “if you are dissatisfied with this country’s governance then your only option now is us.”

So, it is not in Le Pen’s interest to preserve the government over the long term, but it is in her interest to extract whatever concessions are possible — and these are not insubstantial from a radicalised Macronism comprised largely of the old Sarkozy network — before collapsing the government whenever is most politically opportune for the RN.

Edouard Philippe recently announced his plan to run in 2027, in a bid to get ahead of the Macron coalition and rally the centrist bloc behind him. At an earlier secret meeting hosted by presidential advisor Thierry Solère, it was revealed by Libération, Philippe told Le Pen that he wanted to avoid making a moral critique of the RN and to ensure that French politics was defined by “project against project” with the Left excluded.

Though the two projects currently seem to be congealing, Le Pen cannot allow it to stay this way for long. Meanwhile, the Left doesn’t want to be seen to be propping up a Macron government either. The President holds the ability to dissolve parliament again next July, but Le Pen may well collapse the government before then. That way, she can dust her hands of the Macronist rubble.