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September 9, 2024 - 7:00am
An extended leadership contest has done the Conservatives no favours when it comes to providing effective opposition in the House of Commons, but they are still managing to cause trouble. A well-placed motion means that the Government now faces a “binding” Parliamentary vote tomorrow on whether or not to means-test the winter fuel allowance, bringing it into line with Pension Credit and other benefits aimed at the poorest households.
Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves had hoped to avoid a vote altogether, given that such a policy change would not normally require one. Yet, rather than backing down, the Prime Minister has hardened his rhetoric over the past few days. As well as publicly arguing that his government must be prepared to be unpopular, he has gone so far as to claim that Labour was “elected first and foremost to sort out the public finances”. The Chancellor has “the total backing of Number 10 in doing this”, he added.
Despite a growing chorus of voices on the Left demanding a U-turn, the Prime Minister is doing the opposite — and that shouldn’t be surprising. Had there not been a vote, Starmer would have retained more room for manoeuvre. Had he and Reeves decided to change their minds about the winter fuel allowance, it would have been their decision, taken from a position of strength, for which they would have received the credit.
A vote changes everything. The Government’s credibility is now on the line: if the Prime Minister couldn’t face down his restive backbenchers a mere two months after winning one of the largest landslides in the history of British politics, his authority would have evaporated. He has little choice but to confront the rebels.
This is especially important because, for all the sound and fury, this clash over winter fuel payments is just a skirmish. Reeves is clearly rolling the pitch for a miserable Budget, and there will be more miserable Budgets to come. Five long and difficult years stretch out ahead of the Government — and it is increasingly clear that Labour had not prepared for how hard things would be.
Starmer won his historic majority with a very thin manifesto; prior to the election, Reeves and Jeremy Hunt were fighting over an extremely narrow sliver of economic policy territory. They hoped that simply not being the Conservatives would be enough to deliver them to office, and so it proved.
But the price of that strategy must now be paid. Unlike in 2010, the Prime Minister has not prepared the voters for difficult times, nor won their — albeit reluctant — acceptance for any sort of austerity. Nor have his MPs been elected on a manifesto full of clear commitments to do difficult things, normally a very important tool for imposing discipline when times get tough.
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