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July 12, 2024 - 11:30am
“It is not a principle of the Conservative Party to stab its leader in the back, but I must admit it appears to be a practice.” So quipped Arthur Balfour, the man who led the Conservative Party to its worst-ever defeat — until last week.
It was true over a century ago as it is now. In the post-power struggle for the Conservative Party, the knives are not so much out as already bloodied. Kemi Badenoch reportedly spent the first Shadow Cabinet meeting since the election “ripping into” Rishi Sunak over what was a mostly shambolic general election campaign.
According to the report, she claimed that the then-Prime Minister’s decision to call an early election without informing his Cabinet bordered on “unconstitutional”, that the D-Day blunder was “disastrous” and cost many MPs their seats, and that Craig Williams — Sunak’s Parliamentary Private Secretary, who placed a bet on the timing of the election — was a “buffoon”. Given that this was the meeting in which Sunak supposedly took “full responsibility” for the election defeat, this was not so much stabbing Caesar as waiting until he returns as a ghost in Act V. Per reports this week, her team is preparing for a “circular firing squad” against her.
Badenoch’s position as leadership frontrunner makes her vulnerable. According to YouGov, she currently has the support of 31% of the party — more than twice that of Braverman, her closest challenger. This high figure is unlikely to last, as Conservative Party leadership contests rarely see the favourite improve their position. What’s more, Badenoch’s appeal — a willingness to engage in cultural issues, commitment to Brexit, acceptable enough for the centre of the party while appealing to the Right — naturally lends itself to support being siphoned away.
Braverman is also on the Right, and has also sought this week to emphasise her culturally conservative values. Meanwhile, James Cleverly was an ardent Brexiteer who has support across the party. Tom Tugendhat is more polished, and much more attractive to centrist MPs. Robert Jenrick’s resignation in protest at the watering-down of the Rwanda Bill means he has more credibility to criticise the previous leadership’s mistakes.
There is another old adage about the Conservative Party that Badenoch would be wise to heed: “He who wields the dagger rarely wins the crown.” Or she, in this case. Landing the first blow will have damaged her chances to be leader — but so too will the manner in which it was delivered.
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