From Joe Biden’s departure from the presidential ticket to Kamala Harris’s high-flying “vibes” campaign, Democrats had a golden summer. But summer can’t last forever. A campaign borne aloft on winds of hope and joy has fluttered back to earth as autumn breaks and voters’ minds turn to policy.
The story of Harris’s shrinking lead over the Republican nominee, former president Donald Trump, is told in the recent polls. This is particularly true of yesterday’s New York Times/Siena College poll, which showed Trump moving into the lead in a survey of nationwide voters, 48% to 47.
The survey, conducted between 3 and 6 September, was the first major poll out since Labor Day, the traditional start of the campaign season in America. It reveals a statistical tie between the two candidates and is the best news Trump has received from pollsters in a month. By way of comparison, at this point in 2020 the RealClearPolitics average of polls had him down 7.1%, and the NYT/Siena poll later that month showed a similar eight-point deficit. On 8 September 2016, the story was much the same: Trump trailed Clinton by 2.8 points and the Times had him down by two points.
In each case, Trump slightly outperformed those numbers in November. Whether the 2024 numbers are similarly undercounting Trump voters or are accurate, they are beginning to point to a Republican trend.
Two months remain until election day and many things can change, but people’s opinions of Trump have remained static for a long time. After his four years in the White House and four more remaining in the public eye since, voters still largely carry the same views about Trump they did before. They knew Biden about as well. It is only Harris who remains a mystery — largely at the insistence of her own campaign.
Her public statements in the coming months — especially at tomorrow’s debate in Philadelphia — will dispel the glamour she and her campaign have created of being all things to all people. The Vice President has been on both sides of many of the issues that matter to the electorate.
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