Has recent immigration led to a rise in sexual crime? That’s the conclusion that has been drawn from a set of figures obtained by the Centre for Migration Control (CMC). The Telegraph referred to “new data revealing the scale of migrant crime”, while Rakib Ehsan suggested in these pages that a “surge” in sexual offences is due to “unprecedented levels of legal immigration” and the “unchecked importation of single unattached males”. However, scrutiny of the figures warrants caution.

Under freedom of information laws, the CMC obtained data on the number of convictions for sexual offences by British nationals and foreign nationals in the years 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024. This data shows that foreign nationals accounted for 14% of convictions in 2024. It also demonstrates that convictions increased substantially for both groups — by 39% for British nationals and 62% for foreign nationals. Let’s deal with each finding in turn.

Ehsan notes that foreign nationals “accounted for one in seven sexual offence convictions, even though they make up only one in 10 people in the total population”. This suggests they are more likely to commit sexual crimes than their British counterparts. However, we know that fewer crimes are committed by people over 60. And if we use the population aged 16–59 as the benchmark, then foreign nationals are barely overrepresented, accounting for more than 13% of that age group.

Specific groups of foreign nationals, such as Afghans and Somalis, appear to commit sexual crime at much higher rates than British nationals. But others, such as Japanese and Australian immigrants, commit crime at much lower rates. Talking about “migrant crime” is therefore not particularly useful, since it conceals huge variation between groups.

What about the increase in convictions for sexual offences since 2021? While this could be due to an increase in sexual crime, it is more likely due to changing practices within the criminal justice system. The chart below plots the total number of convictions for sexual offences from 2006 to 2024. (Note that figures from before 2017 may be less accurate.)

How dramatic is the rise in sex offences?

Convictions in England and Wales for sex offences, 2006-24

The number trended upward from 2006 to 2017. It then fell between 2017 and 2020, before rising again in the most recent period. The year 2021 therefore had an unusually low number of convictions. If we use 2017 as the baseline, the number has risen by only 8% — as opposed to 36% when using 2021 as the baseline.

Was there a dramatic fall in sexual crime in the late 2010s? Almost certainly not. The pattern in the chart reflects a decline in prosecutions, driven by funding cuts. The pandemic obviously played a role too, which is why the number of convictions was particularly low in 2020. The subsequent recovery is down to the Joint National Action Plan for boosting prosecutions of sexual offences, as well as higher levels of funding.

In short, the rise in convictions from 2021 to 2024 does not provide strong evidence of an increase in sexual crime. If there has been an increase, it is likely closer to 8% than 36%.

What about the finding that convictions rose more for foreign nationals than for Brits? Again, this could point to an increase in sexual crime rates among foreigners. But it may simply reflect the unusually large number of foreigners who’ve come to Britain since 2021, owing to the “Boriswave” and the small-boats crisis. Essentially all population growth over the last three years is due to immigration.

The figures do suggest that some foreign national groups commit sexual crime at much higher rates than average. However, there is only weak evidence that recent immigration is driving an increase in the overall rate of sexual crime.

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Noah Carl is an independent researcher and writer.

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